A Lyga — Lithuania
Mon, Sep 29 2025 • 16:00 • Marijampoles futbolo arenos stadionas
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.68 (league 1.43) 0.85 (league 1.24)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
56.3% 24.1% 18.8%
best score tips
1 - 0
13.4%
1 - 1
11.4%
2 - 0
11.3%
Score & goals probability table
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
0 1 2 3 4 5
Suduva Marijampole 0 8.0% 6.8% 2.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
1 13.4% 11.4% 4.8% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0%
2 11.3% 9.5% 4.0% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0%
3 6.3% 5.3% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
4 2.6% 2.2% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.9% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricSuduva MarijampoleFK Zalgiris Vilnius
Played55
Form53%73%
Attack60%90%
Defense50%60%
Goals For (tot | avg)6 | 1.29 | 1.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)5 | 14 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.80
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.10
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.30
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

73%
FT probability

2.5+

51%
FT probability

3.5+

36%
FT probability

BTTS

66%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Suduva Marijampole FK Zalgiris Vilnius
HATHAT
Played141529161329
Wins50%40%45%50%31%41%
Draws43%33%38%31%38%34%
Loses7%27%17%19%31%24%

Form: Suduva Marijampole: WWLWWDLDWDWWDWDDDWWDLDLWLWDWD • FK Zalgiris Vilnius: WDDWDLWLLLWLDDDDLWWWLWDWDDWWW

League goals

Metric Suduva Marijampole FK Zalgiris Vilnius
HATHAT
GF total212041212041
GF avg1.51.31.41.31.51.4
GA total101828122133
GA avg0.71.21.00.81.61.1

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineSuduva MarijampoleFK Zalgiris Vilnius
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.576%59%79%66%
1.541%28%48%38%
2.514%10%10%10%
3.510%0%3%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricSuduva MarijampoleFK Zalgiris Vilnius
HATHAT
Clean sheets75127310
Failed to score347336

Penalties

MetricSuduva MarijampoleFK Zalgiris Vilnius
Scored (total | %)3 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total31

Streaks

MetricSuduva MarijampoleFK Zalgiris Vilnius
Wins23
Draws34
Losses13

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-00-33-02-4
Biggest losses2-33-02-33-0
Goals For4434
Goals Against3333

Model comparison

MetricSuduva MarijampoleFK Zalgiris Vilnius
Form42%58%
Att40%60%
Def44%56%
Poisson Distribution66%34%
H2h15%85%
Goals21%79%
Total38.0%62.0%

Advice: Double chance : draw or FK Zalgiris Vilnius

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.12 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.35 @ Unibet
Away2.26 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.94 @ 188Bet
Under 2.51.97 @ SBO

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.77 @ 188Bet
No2.20 @ Betfair
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Suduva Marijampole = 1.68 (league 1.43), FK Zalgiris Vilnius = 0.85 (league 1.24)

FK Zalgiris Vilnius
0 1 2 3 4 5
Suduva Marijampole 0 8.0% 6.8% 2.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
1 13.4% 11.4% 4.8% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0%
2 11.3% 9.5% 4.0% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0%
3 6.3% 5.3% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
4 2.6% 2.2% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.9% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 56.3% · Draw 24.1% · Away win 18.8%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1