A-League — Australia
Sat, Nov 29 2025 • 04:00 • Sky Stadium
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.22 (league 1.64) 0.94 (league 1.38)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
42.3% 29.0% 28.4%
best score tips
1 - 0
14.0%
1 - 1
13.2%
0 - 0
11.5%
Score & goals probability table
Adelaide United
0 1 2 3 4 5
Wellington Phoenix 0 11.5% 10.8% 5.1% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1%
1 14.0% 13.2% 6.2% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1%
2 8.6% 8.1% 3.8% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1%
3 3.5% 3.3% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
4 1.1% 1.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricWellington PhoenixAdelaide United
Played55
Form33%60%
Attack43%71%
Defense50%57%
Goals For (tot | avg)6 | 1.210 | 2
Goals Against (tot | avg)7 | 1.46 | 1.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.20
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.60
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.30
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

79%
FT probability

2.5+

56%
FT probability

3.5+

40%
FT probability

BTTS

84%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1 - 2 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Wellington Phoenix Adelaide United
HATHAT
Played325325
Wins33%0%20%100%0%60%
Draws0%100%40%0%0%0%
Loses67%0%40%0%100%40%

Form: Wellington Phoenix: DWDLL • Adelaide United: WLLWW

League goals

Metric Wellington Phoenix Adelaide United
HATHAT
GF total3368210
GF avg1.01.51.22.71.02.0
GA total437246
GA avg1.31.51.40.72.01.2

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineWellington PhoenixAdelaide United
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.580%100%100%80%
1.540%40%60%40%
2.50%0%20%0%
3.50%0%20%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricWellington PhoenixAdelaide United
HATHAT
Clean sheets000101
Failed to score101000

Penalties

MetricWellington PhoenixAdelaide United
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricWellington PhoenixAdelaide United
Wins11
Draws10
Losses02

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-1—4-1—
Biggest losses1-2——2-1
Goals For2241
Goals Against2212

Model comparison

MetricWellington PhoenixAdelaide United
Form36%64%
Att38%63%
Def46%54%
Poisson Distribution48%52%
H2h29%71%
Goals42%58%
Total39.8%60.3%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Adelaide United

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.40 @ Bet365
Draw3.91 @ Pinnacle
Away2.14 @ 1xBet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.64 @ 1xBet
Under 2.52.38 @ Betfair

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.55 @ 188Bet
No2.54 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Wellington Phoenix = 1.22 (league 1.64), Adelaide United = 0.94 (league 1.38)

Adelaide United
0 1 2 3 4 5
Wellington Phoenix 0 11.5% 10.8% 5.1% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1%
1 14.0% 13.2% 6.2% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1%
2 8.6% 8.1% 3.8% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1%
3 3.5% 3.3% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
4 1.1% 1.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 42.3% · Draw 29.0% · Away win 28.4%

Vtot 6 , Vtod1