A-League — Australia
Sun, Jan 11 2026 • 02:00 • Sky Stadium
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.54 (league 1.56) 1.04 (league 1.45)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
48.4% 25.6% 25.5%
best score tips
1 - 1
12.1%
1 - 0
11.7%
2 - 1
9.3%
Score & goals probability table
Adelaide United
0 1 2 3 4 5
Wellington Phoenix 0 7.6% 7.9% 4.1% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%
1 11.7% 12.1% 6.3% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1%
2 9.0% 9.3% 4.8% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1%
3 4.6% 4.8% 2.5% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
4 1.8% 1.8% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricWellington PhoenixAdelaide United
Played55
Form40%40%
Attack90%50%
Defense0%10%
Goals For (tot | avg)9 | 1.85 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)12 | 2.49 | 1.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.00
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.50
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.30
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.10
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

85%
FT probability

2.5+

60%
FT probability

3.5+

43%
FT probability

BTTS

83%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1 - 2 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Wellington Phoenix Adelaide United
HATHAT
Played65116511
Wins50%20%36%67%20%45%
Draws0%40%18%0%0%0%
Loses50%40%45%33%80%55%

Form: Wellington Phoenix: DWDLLWLLWLW • Adelaide United: WLLWWLLLWWL

League goals

Metric Wellington Phoenix Adelaide United
HATHAT
GF total981711516
GF avg1.51.61.51.81.01.5
GA total911209817
GA avg1.52.21.81.51.61.5

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineWellington PhoenixAdelaide United
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.591%91%82%82%
1.545%45%36%55%
2.518%27%18%9%
3.50%9%9%9%
4.50%9%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricWellington PhoenixAdelaide United
HATHAT
Clean sheets011112
Failed to score101202

Penalties

MetricWellington PhoenixAdelaide United
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total20

Streaks

MetricWellington PhoenixAdelaide United
Wins12
Draws10
Losses23

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-10-34-10-1
Biggest losses1-35-10-42-1
Goals For3341
Goals Against3542

Model comparison

MetricWellington PhoenixAdelaide United
Form50%50%
Att64%36%
Def43%57%
Poisson Distribution60%40%
H2h50%50%
Goals50%50%
Total52.8%47.2%

Advice: Double chance : Wellington Phoenix or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.43 @ Dafabet
Draw3.97 @ Pinnacle
Away2.80 @ Dafabet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.61 @ 1xBet
Under 2.52.55 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.51 @ Superbet
No2.71 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Wellington Phoenix = 1.54 (league 1.56), Adelaide United = 1.04 (league 1.45)

Adelaide United
0 1 2 3 4 5
Wellington Phoenix 0 7.6% 7.9% 4.1% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%
1 11.7% 12.1% 6.3% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1%
2 9.0% 9.3% 4.8% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1%
3 4.6% 4.8% 2.5% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
4 1.8% 1.8% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 48.4% · Draw 25.6% · Away win 25.5%

vtt 1 , vtd1