A-League — Australia
Fri, Feb 6 2026 • 06:00 • Sky Stadium
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.56 (league 1.54) 0.89 (league 1.44)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
52.4% 25.5% 21.5%
best score tips
1 - 0
13.5%
1 - 1
12.0%
2 - 0
10.5%
Score & goals probability table
Melbourne Victory
0 1 2 3 4 5
Wellington Phoenix 0 8.7% 7.7% 3.4% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
1 13.5% 12.0% 5.3% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1%
2 10.5% 9.3% 4.2% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0%
3 5.4% 4.8% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
4 2.1% 1.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricWellington PhoenixMelbourne Victory
Played55
Form53%40%
Attack63%50%
Defense50%63%
Goals For (tot | avg)10 | 28 | 1.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)8 | 1.66 | 1.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.90
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.40
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.20
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.10
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

83%
FT probability

2.5+

58%
FT probability

3.5+

41%
FT probability

BTTS

72%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1 - 2 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Wellington Phoenix Melbourne Victory
HATHAT
Played87157815
Wins38%29%33%57%25%40%
Draws25%29%27%14%13%13%
Loses38%43%40%29%63%47%

Form: Wellington Phoenix: DWDLLWLLWLWDWLD • Melbourne Victory: DLWLLLDWWWWLLWL

League goals

Metric Wellington Phoenix Melbourne Victory
HATHAT
GF total13112414620
GF avg1.61.61.62.00.81.3
GA total13152871219
GA avg1.62.11.91.01.51.3

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineWellington PhoenixMelbourne Victory
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.593%87%53%67%
1.553%53%40%33%
2.513%27%20%13%
3.50%13%13%7%
4.50%7%7%7%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricWellington PhoenixMelbourne Victory
HATHAT
Clean sheets022235
Failed to score101347

Penalties

MetricWellington PhoenixMelbourne Victory
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total20

Streaks

MetricWellington PhoenixMelbourne Victory
Wins14
Draws11
Losses23

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-10-35-10-2
Biggest losses1-35-10-25-2
Goals For3352
Goals Against3525

Model comparison

MetricWellington PhoenixMelbourne Victory
Form57%43%
Att56%44%
Def43%57%
Poisson Distribution62%38%
H2h20%80%
Goals31%69%
Total44.8%55.2%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Melbourne Victory

💸

Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.90 @ 10Bet
Draw4.11 @ Pinnacle
Away2.08 @ Dafabet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.67 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.52.31 @ 1xBet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.64 @ Pinnacle
No2.38 @ Betfair
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): Wellington Phoenix = 1.56 (league 1.54), Melbourne Victory = 0.89 (league 1.44)

Melbourne Victory
0 1 2 3 4 5
Wellington Phoenix 0 8.7% 7.7% 3.4% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
1 13.5% 12.0% 5.3% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1%
2 10.5% 9.3% 4.2% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0%
3 5.4% 4.8% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
4 2.1% 1.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 52.4% · Draw 25.5% · Away win 21.5%

vtt 6 , vtd1