Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 16:00 •
Stade Wobi
Expected Goals
0.97 (league 0.91)
0.80 (league 0.80)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 37.9% | 33.1% | 28.9% |
best score tips
0 - 0
17.1%
1 - 0
16.5%
0 - 1
13.7%
Score & goals probability table
| Réal du Faso | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| ASFB | 0 | 17.1% | 13.7% | 5.5% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 16.5% | 13.2% | 5.3% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 8.0% | 6.4% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 2.6% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
ASFB carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 58 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: ASFB -15.4, Réal du Faso -14.5.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
ASFB
vs
Réal du Faso
Elo gapASFB +58
Home / draw / away44% / 23% / 33%
Expected home share58%
Combined Elo2949
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2949
Elo home share
58%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | ASFB | Réal du Faso |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1486.1 | 1462.9 |
| Form Elo | 1464.3 | 1450.4 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1487.5 | 1506.5 |
| Attack Elo | 1422.8 | 1387.1 |
| Defense Elo | 1549.3 | 1567 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -15.4 | -14.5 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. ASFB last-5 Elo change: -15.4; Réal du Faso last-5 Elo change: -14.5.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | ASFB | Réal du Faso |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 27% |
| Attack | 44% | 33% |
| Defense | 11% | 56% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 3 | 0.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 4 | 0.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.60
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.60
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.80
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.90
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
49%
FT probability
2.5+
35%
FT probability
3.5+
25%
FT probability
BTTS
49%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | ASFB | Réal du Faso | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 14 | 13 | 27 | 14 | 13 | 27 |
| Wins | 29% | 38% | 33% | 29% | 23% | 26% |
| Draws | 50% | 23% | 37% | 36% | 31% | 33% |
| Loses | 21% | 38% | 30% | 36% | 46% | 41% |
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Réal du FasoDLLWWWLDLDDDLWDWLLWLDDLWDLL
League goals
| Metric | ASFB | Réal du Faso | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 11 | 12 | 23 | 8 | 10 | 18 |
| GF avg | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| GA total | 11 | 13 | 24 | 9 | 14 | 23 |
| GA avg | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | ASFB | Réal du Faso | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 56% | 56% | 48% | 52% |
| 1.5 | 22% | 22% | 15% | 22% |
| 2.5 | 7% | 7% | 4% | 7% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 4% | 0% | 4% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | ASFB | Réal du Faso | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 8 | 4 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 13 |
| Failed to score | 7 | 5 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 14 |
Penalties
| Metric | ASFB | Réal du Faso |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | ASFB | Réal du Faso |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 3 |
| Draws | 4 | 3 |
| Losses | 3 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 0-3 | 1-0 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 2-0 | 2-3 | 4-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | ASFB | Réal du Faso |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 60% | 40% |
| Att | 57% | 43% |
| Def | 33% | 67% |
| Poisson Distribution | 54% | 46% |
| H2h | 62% | 38% |
| Goals | 60% | 40% |
| Total | 54.3% | 45.7% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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