Ligue 1
— Burkina-Faso
Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 16:00 •
Stade Demba Diop
Expected Goals
1.14 (league 0.91)
0.60 (league 0.80)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 48.7% | 31.7% | 19.4% |
best score tips
1 - 0
20.0%
0 - 0
17.5%
1 - 1
12.0%
Score & goals probability table
| SONABEL | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Douanes | 0 | 17.5% | 10.5% | 3.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 20.0% | 12.0% | 3.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 11.4% | 6.9% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 4.3% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Douanes carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 80 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Douanes +9.6, SONABEL -25.1.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Douanes
vs
SONABEL
Elo gapDouanes +80
Home / draw / away48% / 21% / 31%
Expected home share61%
Combined Elo3007.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3007.9
Elo home share
61%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Douanes | SONABEL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1526.4 | 1481.5 |
| Form Elo | 1532.4 | 1466.4 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1486 | 1491.7 |
| Attack Elo | 1428.3 | 1397.7 |
| Defense Elo | 1582.4 | 1560 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +9.6 | -25.1 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Douanes last-5 Elo change: +9.6; SONABEL last-5 Elo change: -25.1.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Douanes | SONABEL |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 67% | 20% |
| Attack | 44% | 33% |
| Defense | 67% | 33% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 3 | 0.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.60
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.40
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.90
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.10
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
50%
FT probability
2.5+
35%
FT probability
3.5+
25%
FT probability
BTTS
54%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Douanes | SONABEL | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 13 | 14 | 27 | 13 | 14 | 27 |
| Wins | 15% | 50% | 33% | 23% | 21% | 22% |
| Draws | 69% | 29% | 48% | 62% | 29% | 44% |
| Loses | 15% | 21% | 19% | 15% | 50% | 33% |
DouanesWDDLDDDWWDWDLWLLDDWDDDWWLWD
SONABELDLDWLWDLDLDLWWWDLWDDDLLDDDL
League goals
| Metric | Douanes | SONABEL | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 10 | 15 | 25 | 11 | 9 | 20 |
| GF avg | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| GA total | 11 | 13 | 24 | 8 | 18 | 26 |
| GA avg | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Douanes | SONABEL | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 63% | 52% | 52% | 63% |
| 1.5 | 22% | 30% | 22% | 26% |
| 2.5 | 7% | 7% | 0% | 4% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Douanes | SONABEL | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 8 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 10 |
| Failed to score | 5 | 5 | 10 | 4 | 9 | 13 |
Penalties
| Metric | Douanes | SONABEL |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Douanes | SONABEL |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 3 |
| Draws | 3 | 3 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-1 | 1-3 | 2-0 | 1-2 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 3-0 | 1-2 | 4-0 |
| Goals For | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Douanes | SONABEL |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 77% | 23% |
| Att | 57% | 43% |
| Def | 67% | 33% |
| Poisson Distribution | 60% | 40% |
| H2h | 15% | 85% |
| Goals | 20% | 80% |
| Total | 49.3% | 50.7% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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