Ligue 1
— Burkina-Faso
Sat, May 2 2026 • 16:00 •
Stade du 4 Aout
Expected Goals
0.71 (league 0.93)
0.45 (league 0.80)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 37.2% | 42.2% | 20.5% |
best score tips
0 - 0
31.4%
1 - 0
22.3%
0 - 1
14.1%
Score & goals probability table
| AJEB | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Etoile Filante | 0 | 31.4% | 14.1% | 3.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 22.3% | 10.0% | 2.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 7.9% | 3.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Etoile Filante carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 61 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Etoile Filante +10.0, AJEB +5.2.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Etoile Filante
vs
AJEB
Elo gapEtoile Filante +61
Home / draw / away45% / 23% / 32%
Expected home share59%
Combined Elo2883
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2883
Elo home share
59%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Etoile Filante | AJEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1454.3 | 1428.7 |
| Form Elo | 1470 | 1419.9 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1464.5 | 1462.5 |
| Attack Elo | 1386.5 | 1460.5 |
| Defense Elo | 1517.5 | 1494.3 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +10.0 | +5.2 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Etoile Filante last-5 Elo change: +10.0; AJEB last-5 Elo change: +5.2.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Etoile Filante | AJEB |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 33% |
| Attack | 40% | 80% |
| Defense | 70% | 10% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 9 | 1.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.10
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
47%
FT probability
2.5+
33%
FT probability
3.5+
24%
FT probability
BTTS
53%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Etoile Filante | AJEB | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 14 | 14 | 28 | 14 | 14 | 28 |
| Wins | 21% | 21% | 21% | 29% | 7% | 18% |
| Draws | 43% | 36% | 39% | 21% | 36% | 29% |
| Loses | 36% | 43% | 39% | 50% | 57% | 54% |
Etoile FilanteDDDDLDLWLDLLLLLDWDDLWWDLWWLD
AJEBDDLWDLLLLLDWWLDLWLDLLLLDLLDW
League goals
| Metric | Etoile Filante | AJEB | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 9 | 10 | 19 | 17 | 6 | 23 |
| GF avg | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| GA total | 12 | 17 | 29 | 17 | 15 | 32 |
| GA avg | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Etoile Filante | AJEB | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 50% | 64% | 50% | 75% |
| 1.5 | 18% | 29% | 14% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 7% | 11% | 7% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 4% | 7% | 4% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Etoile Filante | AJEB | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 5 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| Failed to score | 8 | 6 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 14 |
Penalties
| Metric | Etoile Filante | AJEB |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 3 | 100.00% | 3 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 3 | 3 |
Streaks
| Metric | Etoile Filante | AJEB |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 2 |
| Draws | 4 | 2 |
| Losses | 5 | 5 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-0 | 0-2 | 4-0 | 0-1 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 4-0 | 2-5 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Etoile Filante | AJEB |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 58% | 42% |
| Att | 33% | 67% |
| Def | 75% | 25% |
| Poisson Distribution | 61% | 39% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 54.5% | 45.5% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…