Sat, Sep 27 2025 • 21:00 • Estádio Barão de Serra Negra
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.11 (league 1.07) 0.44 (league 0.83)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
52.5% 32.9% 14.5%
best score tips
1 - 0
23.7%
0 - 0
21.3%
2 - 0
13.1%
Score & goals probability table
Comercial
0 1 2 3 4 5
XV de Piracicaba 0 21.3% 9.3% 2.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
1 23.7% 10.3% 2.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
2 13.1% 5.7% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
3 4.9% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 1.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricXV de PiracicabaComercial
Played55
Form67%67%
Attack67%44%
Defense78%78%
Goals For (tot | avg)6 | 1.24 | 0.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)2 | 0.42 | 0.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.40
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.60
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.10
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.10
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

51%
FT probability

2.5+

36%
FT probability

3.5+

26%
FT probability

BTTS

58%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1 - 1 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric XV de Piracicaba Comercial
HATHAT
Played78158715
Wins86%50%67%63%43%53%
Draws14%38%27%25%14%20%
Loses0%13%7%13%43%27%

Form: XV de Piracicaba: DWWDWWDWWWLWWWD • Comercial: WWWDLLWWDLLWWWD

League goals

Metric XV de Piracicaba Comercial
HATHAT
GF total1271911617
GF avg1.70.91.31.40.91.1
GA total3366511
GA avg0.40.40.40.80.70.7

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineXV de PiracicabaComercial
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.580%40%73%53%
1.540%0%27%20%
2.57%0%7%0%
3.50%0%7%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricXV de PiracicabaComercial
HATHAT
Clean sheets459437
Failed to score033134

Penalties

MetricXV de PiracicabaComercial
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%6 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total16

Streaks

MetricXV de PiracicabaComercial
Wins33
Draws11
Losses12

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-10-24-20-2
Biggest losses1-00-11-0
Goals For3242
Goals Against1122

Model comparison

MetricXV de PiracicabaComercial
Form50%50%
Att60%40%
Def50%50%
Poisson Distribution72%28%
H2h85%15%
Goals78%22%
Total65.8%34.2%

Advice: Combo Double chance : XV de Piracicaba or draw and -3.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.61 @ Unibet
Draw3.45 @ Superbet
Away5.94 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.38 @ Unibet
Under 2.51.57 @ Bet365

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.27 @ Superbet
No1.58 @ Unibet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): XV de Piracicaba = 1.11 (league 1.07), Comercial = 0.44 (league 0.83)

Comercial
0 1 2 3 4 5
XV de Piracicaba 0 21.3% 9.3% 2.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
1 23.7% 10.3% 2.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
2 13.1% 5.7% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
3 4.9% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 1.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 52.5% · Draw 32.9% · Away win 14.5%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1