Thu, Dec 4 2025 • 13:00 • Nyayo National Stadium
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.64 (league 0.98) 1.16 (league 0.86)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
48.0% 24.5% 26.8%
best score tips
1 - 1
11.6%
1 - 0
10.0%
2 - 1
9.5%
Score & goals probability table
Mathare United
0 1 2 3 4 5
Nairobi United 0 6.1% 7.0% 4.1% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1%
1 10.0% 11.6% 6.7% 2.6% 0.7% 0.2%
2 8.2% 9.5% 5.5% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1%
3 4.5% 5.2% 3.0% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1%
4 1.8% 2.1% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.6% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricNairobi UnitedMathare United
Played55
Form60%27%
Attack100%50%
Defense0%0%
Goals For (tot | avg)9 | 1.83 | 0.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)7 | 1.46 | 1.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.40
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.80
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.20
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.70
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

72%
FT probability

2.5+

51%
FT probability

3.5+

36%
FT probability

BTTS

62%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

- no cards data
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Nairobi United Mathare United
HATHAT
Played3364610
Wins67%67%67%25%33%30%
Draws0%0%0%0%33%20%
Loses33%33%33%75%33%50%

Form: Nairobi United: WLWLWW • Mathare United: LWDLWLLDWL

League goals

Metric Nairobi United Mathare United
HATHAT
GF total7310437
GF avg2.31.01.71.00.50.7
GA total6176410
GA avg2.00.31.21.50.71.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineNairobi UnitedMathare United
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.567%67%60%60%
1.550%33%10%40%
2.533%17%0%0%
3.517%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricNairobi UnitedMathare United
HATHAT
Clean sheets022134
Failed to score112134

Penalties

MetricNairobi UnitedMathare United
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total11

Streaks

MetricNairobi UnitedMathare United
Wins11
Draws01
Losses12

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-20-22-00-1
Biggest losses0-31-00-22-0
Goals For4221
Goals Against3122

Model comparison

MetricNairobi UnitedMathare United
Form69%31%
Att75%25%
Def46%54%
Poisson Distribution65%35%
H2h0%100%
Goals29%71%
Total56.8%43.2%

Advice: Double chance : Nairobi United or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.99 @ 1xBet
Draw3.10 @ Bet365
Away3.90 @ Betfair

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.40 @ Betfair
Under 2.51.53 @ Bet365

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.10 @ Betfair
No1.67 @ William Hill
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Nairobi United = 1.64 (league 0.98), Mathare United = 1.16 (league 0.86)

Mathare United
0 1 2 3 4 5
Nairobi United 0 6.1% 7.0% 4.1% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1%
1 10.0% 11.6% 6.7% 2.6% 0.7% 0.2%
2 8.2% 9.5% 5.5% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1%
3 4.5% 5.2% 3.0% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1%
4 1.8% 2.1% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.6% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 48.0% · Draw 24.5% · Away win 26.8%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1