Mon, Dec 8 2025 • 13:00 • Kasarani Annex Stadium
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.29 (league 1.01) 2.82 (league 0.90)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
14.8% 15.8% 62.5%
best score tips
1 - 2
8.4%
1 - 3
7.9%
0 - 2
6.5%
Score & goals probability table
Mara Sugar
0 1 2 3 4 5
Mathare United 0 1.6% 4.6% 6.5% 6.1% 4.3% 2.4%
1 2.1% 6.0% 8.4% 7.9% 5.6% 3.1%
2 1.4% 3.9% 5.4% 5.1% 3.6% 2.0%
3 0.6% 1.7% 2.3% 2.2% 1.6% 0.9%
4 0.2% 0.5% 0.8% 0.7% 0.5% 0.3%
5 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricMathare UnitedMara Sugar
Played55
Form47%33%
Attack80%60%
Defense20%40%
Goals For (tot | avg)4 | 0.83 | 0.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)4 | 0.83 | 0.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.40
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.70
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.60
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.80
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

61%
FT probability

2.5+

43%
FT probability

3.5+

30%
FT probability

BTTS

65%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

- no cards data
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Mathare United Mara Sugar
HATHAT
Played47117310
Wins25%43%36%14%33%20%
Draws0%29%18%43%67%50%
Loses75%29%45%43%0%30%

Form: Mathare United: LWDLWLLDWLW • Mara Sugar: DLWDDDWDLL

League goals

Metric Mathare United Mara Sugar
HATHAT
GF total448257
GF avg1.00.60.70.31.70.7
GA total6410347
GA avg1.50.60.90.41.30.7

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineMathare UnitedMara Sugar
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.564%55%40%60%
1.59%36%30%10%
2.50%0%0%0%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricMathare UnitedMara Sugar
HATHAT
Clean sheets145404
Failed to score134606

Penalties

MetricMathare UnitedMara Sugar
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total11

Streaks

MetricMathare UnitedMara Sugar
Wins11
Draws13
Losses21

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-00-12-01-2
Biggest losses0-22-00-1—
Goals For2122
Goals Against2212

Model comparison

MetricMathare UnitedMara Sugar
Form58%42%
Att57%43%
Def43%57%
Poisson Distribution38%62%
H2h50%50%
Goals44%56%
Total48.3%51.7%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Mara Sugar

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.76 @ Pinnacle
Draw2.80 @ Pinnacle
Away3.10 @ Betano

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.55 @ Betfair
No1.53 @ William Hill

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.53.30 @ Betfair
Under 2.51.33 @ Bet365
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Mathare United = 1.29 (league 1.01), Mara Sugar = 2.82 (league 0.90)

Mara Sugar
0 1 2 3 4 5
Mathare United 0 1.6% 4.6% 6.5% 6.1% 4.3% 2.4%
1 2.1% 6.0% 8.4% 7.9% 5.6% 3.1%
2 1.4% 3.9% 5.4% 5.1% 3.6% 2.0%
3 0.6% 1.7% 2.3% 2.2% 1.6% 0.9%
4 0.2% 0.5% 0.8% 0.7% 0.5% 0.3%
5 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 14.8% · Draw 15.8% · Away win 62.5%

vtt 5 , vtd1