Sat, Feb 14 2026 • 13:00 • Moi International Sports Centre
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.48 (league 1.00) 1.46 (league 0.90)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
12.0% 26.3% 61.3%
best score tips
0 - 1
21.0%
0 - 2
15.3%
0 - 0
14.3%
Score & goals probability table
Tusker
0 1 2 3 4 5
Mathare United 0 14.3% 21.0% 15.3% 7.5% 2.7% 0.8%
1 6.9% 10.1% 7.4% 3.6% 1.3% 0.4%
2 1.6% 2.4% 1.8% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
3 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricMathare UnitedTusker
Played55
Form27%47%
Attack23%38%
Defense54%38%
Goals For (tot | avg)3 | 0.65 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 1.28 | 1.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.50
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.90
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.90
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.80
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

51%
FT probability

2.5+

36%
FT probability

3.5+

25%
FT probability

BTTS

59%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

- no cards data
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Mathare United Tusker
HATHAT
Played9101910919
Wins33%30%32%20%67%42%
Draws0%40%21%30%11%21%
Loses67%30%47%50%22%37%

Form: Mathare United: LWDLWLLDWLWLDWLLWDL • Tusker: LLDDWWDWLLWWWLWLLWD

League goals

Metric Mathare United Tusker
HATHAT
GF total751271017
GF avg0.80.50.60.71.10.9
GA total1161714519
GA avg1.20.60.91.40.61.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineMathare UnitedTusker
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.558%58%74%63%
1.55%32%16%26%
2.50%0%0%5%
3.50%0%0%5%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricMathare UnitedTusker
HATHAT
Clean sheets358257
Failed to score358415

Penalties

MetricMathare UnitedTusker
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total22

Streaks

MetricMathare UnitedTusker
Wins13
Draws12
Losses22

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-00-12-10-2
Biggest losses0-22-00-42-1
Goals For2122
Goals Against2242

Model comparison

MetricMathare UnitedTusker
Form36%64%
Att38%63%
Def57%43%
Poisson Distribution26%74%
H2h29%71%
Goals30%70%
Total36.0%64.2%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Tusker

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.10 @ Bet365
Draw2.88 @ Bet365
Away2.74 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.30 @ Superbet
No1.55 @ William Hill

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.90 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.40 @ Bet365
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Mathare United = 0.48 (league 1.00), Tusker = 1.46 (league 0.90)

Tusker
0 1 2 3 4 5
Mathare United 0 14.3% 21.0% 15.3% 7.5% 2.7% 0.8%
1 6.9% 10.1% 7.4% 3.6% 1.3% 0.4%
2 1.6% 2.4% 1.8% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
3 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 12.0% · Draw 26.3% · Away win 61.3%

vtt 1 , vtd1