Wed, Apr 1 2026 • 11:00 • Nyayo National Stadium
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.81 (league 1.00) 1.85 (league 0.89)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
37.3% 21.7% 38.7%
best score tips
1 - 1
8.6%
1 - 2
8.0%
2 - 1
7.8%
Score & goals probability table
Mara Sugar
0 1 2 3 4 5
Nairobi United 0 2.6% 4.7% 4.4% 2.7% 1.3% 0.5%
1 4.6% 8.6% 8.0% 4.9% 2.3% 0.8%
2 4.2% 7.8% 7.2% 4.5% 2.1% 0.8%
3 2.5% 4.7% 4.4% 2.7% 1.2% 0.5%
4 1.2% 2.1% 2.0% 1.2% 0.6% 0.2%
5 0.4% 0.8% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricNairobi UnitedMara Sugar
Played55
Form33%40%
Attack50%83%
Defense33%33%
Goals For (tot | avg)3 | 0.65 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)4 | 0.84 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.10
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.50
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.00
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.80
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

67%
FT probability

2.5+

47%
FT probability

3.5+

34%
FT probability

BTTS

66%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

- no cards data
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Nairobi United Mara Sugar
HATHAT
Played111324131225
Wins27%46%38%31%17%24%
Draws27%31%29%31%67%48%
Loses45%23%33%38%17%28%

Form: Nairobi United: WLWLWWLLDWDWLDWDLWDDWLLD • Mara Sugar: DLWDDDWDLLWWDLDDLLDWDWDDL

League goals

Metric Nairobi United Mara Sugar
HATHAT
GF total151328101323
GF avg1.41.01.20.81.10.9
GA total1682491524
GA avg1.50.61.00.71.31.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineNairobi UnitedMara Sugar
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.571%71%52%64%
1.525%25%32%20%
2.517%4%8%12%
3.54%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricNairobi UnitedMara Sugar
HATHAT
Clean sheets167639
Failed to score3478412

Penalties

MetricNairobi UnitedMara Sugar
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total21

Streaks

MetricNairobi UnitedMara Sugar
Wins22
Draws23
Losses22

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-01-33-11-2
Biggest losses0-32-01-33-0
Goals For4333
Goals Against3233

Model comparison

MetricNairobi UnitedMara Sugar
Form45%55%
Att38%63%
Def50%50%
Poisson Distribution51%49%
H2h50%50%
Goals44%56%
Total46.3%53.8%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Mara Sugar

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.84 @ Marathonbet
Draw2.87 @ 188Bet
Away3.25 @ 188Bet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.46 @ 188Bet
No1.55 @ William Hill

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.53.08 @ Marathonbet
Under 2.51.36 @ Bet365
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Nairobi United = 1.81 (league 1.00), Mara Sugar = 1.85 (league 0.89)

Mara Sugar
0 1 2 3 4 5
Nairobi United 0 2.6% 4.7% 4.4% 2.7% 1.3% 0.5%
1 4.6% 8.6% 8.0% 4.9% 2.3% 0.8%
2 4.2% 7.8% 7.2% 4.5% 2.1% 0.8%
3 2.5% 4.7% 4.4% 2.7% 1.2% 0.5%
4 1.2% 2.1% 2.0% 1.2% 0.6% 0.2%
5 0.4% 0.8% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 37.3% · Draw 21.7% · Away win 38.7%

vtt 4 , vtd1