Wed, Feb 18 2026 • 12:00 • Nyayo National Stadium
Match Postponed
Expected Goals
1.70 (league 1.00) 2.12 (league 0.90)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
30.4% 20.8% 45.8%
best score tips
1 - 2
8.4%
1 - 1
7.9%
2 - 2
7.1%
Score & goals probability table
Mara Sugar
0 1 2 3 4 5
Nairobi United 0 2.2% 4.7% 4.9% 3.5% 1.9% 0.8%
1 3.7% 7.9% 8.4% 5.9% 3.2% 1.3%
2 3.2% 6.7% 7.1% 5.0% 2.7% 1.1%
3 1.8% 3.8% 4.0% 2.8% 1.5% 0.6%
4 0.8% 1.6% 1.7% 1.2% 0.6% 0.3%
5 0.3% 0.5% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricNairobi UnitedMara Sugar
Played55
Form33%20%
Attack36%36%
Defense57%36%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 15 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 1.29 | 1.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.00
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.50
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.10
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.90
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

68%
FT probability

2.5+

48%
FT probability

3.5+

34%
FT probability

BTTS

68%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

- no cards data
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Nairobi United Mara Sugar
HATHAT
Played891710919
Wins25%56%41%20%22%21%
Draws25%22%24%30%67%47%
Loses50%22%35%50%11%32%

Form: Nairobi United: WLWLWWLLDWDWLDWDL • Mara Sugar: DLWDDDWDLLWWDLDDLLD

League goals

Metric Nairobi United Mara Sugar
HATHAT
GF total10112151116
GF avg1.31.21.20.51.20.8
GA total1361971219
GA avg1.60.71.10.71.31.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineNairobi UnitedMara Sugar
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.571%76%53%63%
1.529%29%26%21%
2.518%6%5%16%
3.56%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricNairobi UnitedMara Sugar
HATHAT
Clean sheets044527
Failed to score325729

Penalties

MetricNairobi UnitedMara Sugar
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total11

Streaks

MetricNairobi UnitedMara Sugar
Wins22
Draws13
Losses22

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-21-32-01-2
Biggest losses0-32-01-33-0
Goals For4323
Goals Against3233

Model comparison

MetricNairobi UnitedMara Sugar
Form63%38%
Att50%50%
Def60%40%
Poisson Distribution49%51%
H2h50%50%
Goals44%56%
Total52.7%47.5%

Advice: Double chance : Nairobi United or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.83 @ 10Bet
Draw3.05 @ Betano
Away5.00 @ Betfair

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.55 @ Betfair
No1.53 @ William Hill

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.88 @ Betfair
Under 2.51.44 @ Bet365
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Nairobi United = 1.70 (league 1.00), Mara Sugar = 2.12 (league 0.90)

Mara Sugar
0 1 2 3 4 5
Nairobi United 0 2.2% 4.7% 4.9% 3.5% 1.9% 0.8%
1 3.7% 7.9% 8.4% 5.9% 3.2% 1.3%
2 3.2% 6.7% 7.1% 5.0% 2.7% 1.1%
3 1.8% 3.8% 4.0% 2.8% 1.5% 0.6%
4 0.8% 1.6% 1.7% 1.2% 0.6% 0.3%
5 0.3% 0.5% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 30.4% · Draw 20.8% · Away win 45.8%

vtt 4 , vtd1