Mara Sugar vs Shabana

FKF Premier League — Kenya

Sat, May 2 2026 • 11:00 • Venue TBA

Not Started

Mara Sugar

—

Shabana

Expected Goals

1.01 (league 1.03) 0.85 (league 0.91)

1x2 probabilities

home	draw	away
38.1%	32.1%	29.7%

best score tips

1 - 0

15.7%

0 - 0

15.5%

1 - 1

13.4%

Score & goals probability table

		Shabana
		0	1	2	3	4	5
Mara Sugar	0	15.5%	13.2%	5.7%	1.6%	0.3%	0.1%
	1	15.7%	13.4%	5.7%	1.6%	0.3%	0.1%
	2	7.9%	6.8%	2.9%	0.8%	0.2%	0.0%
	3	2.7%	2.3%	1.0%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%
	4	0.7%	0.6%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
	5	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

FootyWow Elo verdict

Balanced Elo outlook

Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Mara Sugar +27.5, Shabana -2.8.

Thin confidence Upset risk: High Elo standalone

Mara Sugar Elo 1520.6 · +27.5

Shabana Elo 1559.7 · -2.8

Elo gapShabana +4

Home / draw / away35% / 30% / 35%

Expected home share49%

Combined Elo3080.3

Deep Elo analysisOpen

Structural edge Balanced Elo outlook

Confidence band Thin confidence

Upset risk High

Model agreement Elo standalone

Combined Elo 3080.3

Elo home share 49%

Match tone Upset Watch

Metric	Mara Sugar	Shabana
Overall Elo	1520.6	1559.7
Form Elo	1542.7	1556.2
Home / Away Elo	1492.1	1531.8
Attack Elo	1439.3	1510.3
Defense Elo	1566.7	1557.8
Last 5 Elo change	+27.5	-2.8

The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Mara Sugar last-5 Elo change: +27.5; Shabana last-5 Elo change: -2.8.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

Metric	Mara Sugar	Shabana
Played	5	5
Form	67%	47%
Attack	50%	38%
Defense	75%	38%
Goals For (tot \| avg)	4 \| 0.8	3 \| 0.6
Goals Against (tot \| avg)	2 \| 0.4	5 \| 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.00

Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.10

Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.90

Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.90

Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

56%

FT probability

2.5+

40%

FT probability

3.5+

28%

FT probability

BTTS

56%

FT probability

Yellow Cards

Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric	Mara Sugar			Shabana
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Played	14	15	29	15	14	29
Wins	36%	27%	31%	47%	43%	45%
Draws	29%	60%	45%	20%	36%	28%
Loses	36%	13%	24%	33%	21%	28%

Mara SugarDLWDDDWDLLWWDLDDLLDWDWDDLDWWW

ShabanaWWDLLLDWDWWDDWLDWDWWWWLLLWLWD

League goals

Metric	Mara Sugar			Shabana
	H	A	T	H	A	T
GF total	11	16	27	14	18	32
GF avg	0.8	1.1	0.9	0.9	1.3	1.1
GA total	9	16	25	12	18	30
GA avg	0.6	1.1	0.9	0.8	1.3	1.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

Line	Mara Sugar		Shabana
	For	Against	For	Against
0.5	59%	59%	79%	48%
1.5	28%	17%	17%	34%
2.5	7%	10%	10%	14%
3.5	0%	0%	3%	3%
4.5	0%	0%	0%	3%

Clean sheets & failed to score

Metric	Mara Sugar			Shabana
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Clean sheets	7	5	12	9	6	15
Failed to score	8	4	12	4	2	6

Penalties

Metric	Mara Sugar	Shabana
Scored (total \| %)	1 \| 100.00%	2 \| 100.00%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	1	2

Streaks

Metric	Mara Sugar	Shabana
Wins	2	4
Draws	3	2
Losses	2	3

Biggest results (H/A)

Metric	H	A	H	A
Biggest wins	3-1	1-2	4-2	1-3
Biggest losses	1-3	3-0	1-3	5-1
Goals For	3	3	4	3
Goals Against	3	3	3	5

Model comparison

Metric	Mara Sugar	Shabana
Form	59%	41%
Att	57%	43%
Def	71%	29%
Poisson Distribution	55%	45%
H2h	50%	50%
Goals	50%	50%
Total	57.0%	43.0%

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

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League standings

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League page • Country page • Mara Sugar vs Shabana

Metric	Mara Sugar	Shabana
Scored (total \| %)	1 \| 100.00%	2 \| 100.00%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	1	2