First League — Russia
Sat, Oct 4 2025 • 14:00 • Stadion Fakel
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.18 (league 1.22) 0.45 (league 1.06)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
54.1% 31.5% 14.3%
best score tips
1 - 0
23.0%
0 - 0
19.6%
2 - 0
13.6%
Score & goals probability table
Volga Ulyanovsk
0 1 2 3 4 5
Fakel 0 19.6% 8.9% 2.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
1 23.0% 10.5% 2.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
2 13.6% 6.2% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
3 5.3% 2.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 1.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricFakelVolga Ulyanovsk
Played55
Form40%33%
Attack38%75%
Defense50%0%
Goals For (tot | avg)3 | 0.66 | 1.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)4 | 0.810 | 2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.80
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.60
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.40
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.80
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

54%
FT probability

2.5+

38%
FT probability

3.5+

27%
FT probability

BTTS

59%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Fakel Volga Ulyanovsk
HATHAT
Played57126612
Wins80%43%58%33%17%25%
Draws20%29%25%17%33%25%
Loses0%29%17%50%50%50%

Form: Fakel: WWWWWWLDWLDD • Volga Ulyanovsk: LLDLWLWDLWLD

League goals

Metric Fakel Volga Ulyanovsk
HATHAT
GF total46107512
GF avg0.80.90.81.20.81.0
GA total077101121
GA avg0.01.00.61.71.81.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineFakelVolga Ulyanovsk
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.575%42%75%92%
1.58%17%17%50%
2.50%0%8%17%
3.50%0%0%17%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricFakelVolga Ulyanovsk
HATHAT
Clean sheets527101
Failed to score123033

Penalties

MetricFakelVolga Ulyanovsk
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricFakelVolga Ulyanovsk
Wins61
Draws11
Losses12

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins1-01-22-12-3
Biggest losses—2-01-44-0
Goals For1223
Goals Against0244

Model comparison

MetricFakelVolga Ulyanovsk
Form55%45%
Att33%67%
Def71%29%
Poisson Distribution100%0%
H2h0%0%
Goals0%0%
Total53.0%47.0%

Advice: Combo Double chance : Fakel or draw and -3.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.57 @ 1xBet
Draw3.82 @ Pinnacle
Away6.90 @ 1xBet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.39 @ 1xBet
Under 2.51.60 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.49 @ 188Bet
No1.57 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Fakel = 1.18 (league 1.22), Volga Ulyanovsk = 0.45 (league 1.06)

Volga Ulyanovsk
0 1 2 3 4 5
Fakel 0 19.6% 8.9% 2.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
1 23.0% 10.5% 2.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
2 13.6% 6.2% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
3 5.3% 2.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 1.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 54.1% · Draw 31.5% · Away win 14.3%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1