Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 14:00 •
The Cleric Stadium
Expected Goals
1.87 (league 1.64)
0.70 (league 1.37)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 64.1% | 21.4% | 13.2% |
best score tips
1 - 0
14.3%
2 - 0
13.4%
1 - 1
10.0%
Score & goals probability table
| Trafford | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Congleton Town | 0 | 7.6% | 5.3% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 14.3% | 10.0% | 3.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 13.4% | 9.4% | 3.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 8.4% | 5.9% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Congleton Town carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 90 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Congleton Town -1.1, Trafford -38.0.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Congleton Town
vs
Trafford
Elo gapCongleton Town +90
Home / draw / away50% / 20% / 30%
Expected home share63%
Combined Elo2841.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2841.5
Elo home share
63%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Congleton Town | Trafford |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1448 | 1393.5 |
| Form Elo | 1445.6 | 1377.9 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1497.5 | 1427.6 |
| Attack Elo | 1535.1 | 1434.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1421.8 | 1362.6 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -1.1 | -38.0 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Congleton Town last-5 Elo change: -1.1; Trafford last-5 Elo change: -38.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Congleton Town | Trafford |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 0% |
| Attack | 42% | 16% |
| Defense | 53% | 47% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 3 | 0.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 10 | 2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.20
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.40
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
84%
FT probability
2.5+
59%
FT probability
3.5+
42%
FT probability
BTTS
70%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
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Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Congleton Town | Trafford | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 20 | 20 | 40 | 20 | 20 | 40 |
| Wins | 30% | 10% | 20% | 25% | 5% | 15% |
| Draws | 50% | 20% | 35% | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Loses | 20% | 70% | 45% | 55% | 75% | 65% |
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TraffordLLLLLLLLDWLDLLLDWLLDDDLLLLWWDLDLWLWLLLLL
League goals
| Metric | Congleton Town | Trafford | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 28 | 23 | 51 | 30 | 15 | 45 |
| GF avg | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| GA total | 24 | 46 | 70 | 32 | 44 | 76 |
| GA avg | 1.2 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.9 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Congleton Town | Trafford | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 75% | 73% | 60% | 93% |
| 1.5 | 40% | 55% | 25% | 50% |
| 2.5 | 10% | 33% | 15% | 18% |
| 3.5 | 3% | 10% | 13% | 10% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 3% | 0% | 8% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Congleton Town | Trafford | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 8 | 3 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 5 | 5 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 16 |
Penalties
| Metric | Congleton Town | Trafford |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Congleton Town | Trafford |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 2 |
| Draws | 4 | 3 |
| Losses | 3 | 8 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 0-1 | 4-1 | 3-4 |
| Biggest losses | 2-4 | 6-2 | 4-6 | 9-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 6 | 6 | 9 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Congleton Town | Trafford |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 100% | 0% |
| Att | 73% | 27% |
| Def | 53% | 47% |
| Poisson Distribution | 74% | 26% |
| H2h | 29% | 71% |
| Goals | 29% | 71% |
| Total | 51.6% | 48.4% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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