Sat, May 2 2026 • 15:00 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
1.98 (league 1.70)
1.70 (league 1.41)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 43.2% | 21.5% | 33.0% |
best score tips
1 - 1
8.5%
2 - 1
8.4%
1 - 2
7.2%
Score & goals probability table
| Vipava | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Zidgrad Idrija | 0 | 2.5% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 5.0% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 4.1% | 1.7% | 0.6% | |
| 2 | 4.9% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 4.1% | 1.7% | 0.6% | |
| 3 | 3.3% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 1.6% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Zidgrad Idrija carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 29 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Zidgrad Idrija -26.5, Vipava +11.1.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Zidgrad Idrija
vs
Vipava
Elo gapZidgrad Idrija +29
Home / draw / away40% / 27% / 33%
Expected home share54%
Combined Elo2865
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2865
Elo home share
54%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Zidgrad Idrija | Vipava |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1429.3 | 1435.7 |
| Form Elo | 1399.6 | 1431.1 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1478.8 | 1476.3 |
| Attack Elo | 1458.8 | 1452.3 |
| Defense Elo | 1390.2 | 1439.6 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -26.5 | +11.1 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Zidgrad Idrija last-5 Elo change: -26.5; Vipava last-5 Elo change: +11.1.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Zidgrad Idrija | Vipava |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 20% | 53% |
| Attack | 21% | 50% |
| Defense | 43% | 57% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.80
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.10
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
68%
FT probability
3.5+
48%
FT probability
BTTS
79%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
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Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Zidgrad Idrija | Vipava | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 11 | 10 | 21 | 11 | 11 | 22 |
| Wins | 27% | 10% | 19% | 27% | 18% | 23% |
| Draws | 18% | 0% | 10% | 36% | 18% | 27% |
| Loses | 55% | 90% | 71% | 36% | 64% | 50% |
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VipavaLLLWWLDLWLLLLDLDDWLDWD
League goals
| Metric | Zidgrad Idrija | Vipava | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 18 | 9 | 27 | 12 | 13 | 25 |
| GF avg | 1.6 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| GA total | 22 | 29 | 51 | 16 | 23 | 39 |
| GA avg | 2.0 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.8 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Zidgrad Idrija | Vipava | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 81% | 90% | 64% | 91% |
| 1.5 | 29% | 81% | 32% | 55% |
| 2.5 | 19% | 29% | 14% | 32% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 19% | 5% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 10% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Zidgrad Idrija | Vipava | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
Penalties
| Metric | Zidgrad Idrija | Vipava |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Zidgrad Idrija | Vipava |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 2 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 7 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-1 | 0-1 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Biggest losses | 1-3 | 6-0 | 0-3 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 7 | 3 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Zidgrad Idrija | Vipava |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 27% | 73% |
| Att | 30% | 70% |
| Def | 43% | 57% |
| Poisson Distribution | 53% | 47% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 42.2% | 57.8% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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