Sat, May 2 2026 • 15:00 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
2.10 (league 1.70)
0.53 (league 1.41)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 72.1% | 17.8% | 8.1% |
best score tips
2 - 0
15.9%
1 - 0
15.1%
3 - 0
11.1%
Score & goals probability table
| Svoboda | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Dren Vrhnika | 0 | 7.2% | 3.8% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 15.1% | 8.0% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 15.9% | 8.4% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 11.1% | 5.9% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 5.8% | 3.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Dren Vrhnika carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 134 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Dren Vrhnika +12.6, Svoboda +18.8.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Dren Vrhnika
vs
Svoboda
Elo gapDren Vrhnika +134
Home / draw / away56% / 18% / 26%
Expected home share68%
Combined Elo3055.7
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3055.7
Elo home share
68%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Dren Vrhnika | Svoboda |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1577.4 | 1478.3 |
| Form Elo | 1600.4 | 1484.9 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1547.5 | 1507.2 |
| Attack Elo | 1639.6 | 1497.1 |
| Defense Elo | 1590.2 | 1445.1 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +12.6 | +18.8 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Dren Vrhnika last-5 Elo change: +12.6; Svoboda last-5 Elo change: +18.8.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Dren Vrhnika | Svoboda |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 67% | 33% |
| Attack | 93% | 21% |
| Defense | 64% | 64% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 13 | 2.6 | 3 | 0.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.60
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.20
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
83%
FT probability
2.5+
58%
FT probability
3.5+
41%
FT probability
BTTS
66%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Dren Vrhnika | Svoboda | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 11 | 11 | 22 | 10 | 11 | 21 |
| Wins | 73% | 55% | 64% | 10% | 36% | 24% |
| Draws | 18% | 27% | 23% | 30% | 9% | 19% |
| Loses | 9% | 18% | 14% | 60% | 55% | 57% |
Dren VrhnikaWWWWDDLDWWWLDWWWWDWLWW
SvobodaLWLDLLDLLLLWWLLWLDDWL
League goals
| Metric | Dren Vrhnika | Svoboda | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 23 | 24 | 47 | 9 | 16 | 25 |
| GF avg | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| GA total | 5 | 10 | 15 | 19 | 19 | 38 |
| GA avg | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.8 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Dren Vrhnika | Svoboda | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 86% | 45% | 62% | 76% |
| 1.5 | 59% | 18% | 24% | 67% |
| 2.5 | 32% | 5% | 19% | 19% |
| 3.5 | 14% | 0% | 14% | 5% |
| 4.5 | 14% | 0% | 0% | 5% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Dren Vrhnika | Svoboda | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 6 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
Penalties
| Metric | Dren Vrhnika | Svoboda |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Dren Vrhnika | Svoboda |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 1 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-0 | 0-7 | 3-0 | 1-4 |
| Biggest losses | 0-1 | 3-1 | 0-7 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 5 | 7 | 3 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Dren Vrhnika | Svoboda |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 67% | 33% |
| Att | 81% | 19% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 81% | 19% |
| H2h | 100% | 0% |
| Goals | 100% | 0% |
| Total | 69.8% | 30.3% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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