Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 13:30 •
Royal Aria Stadium
Expected Goals
0.79 (league 1.27)
0.70 (league 1.10)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 34.1% | 36.8% | 29.1% |
best score tips
0 - 0
22.5%
1 - 0
17.7%
0 - 1
15.8%
Score & goals probability table
| Calendar | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Black Lions | 0 | 22.5% | 15.8% | 5.6% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 17.7% | 12.5% | 4.4% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 7.0% | 4.9% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Black Lions carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 30 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Black Lions -9.1, Calendar -29.0.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Black Lions
vs
Calendar
Elo gapBlack Lions +30
Home / draw / away40% / 27% / 33%
Expected home share54%
Combined Elo2887.4
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2887.4
Elo home share
54%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Black Lions | Calendar |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1441.2 | 1446.2 |
| Form Elo | 1427 | 1435.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1463.1 | 1480 |
| Attack Elo | 1406.4 | 1398.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1502.4 | 1520.6 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -9.1 | -29.0 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Black Lions last-5 Elo change: -9.1; Calendar last-5 Elo change: -29.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Black Lions | Calendar |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 7% | 20% |
| Attack | 25% | 50% |
| Defense | 0% | 13% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.4 | 4 | 0.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 7 | 1.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
0.90
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.20
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.60
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.10
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
56%
FT probability
2.5+
39%
FT probability
3.5+
28%
FT probability
BTTS
54%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Black Lions | Calendar | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 13 | 13 | 26 | 14 | 11 | 25 |
| Wins | 23% | 15% | 19% | 7% | 18% | 12% |
| Draws | 15% | 31% | 23% | 36% | 9% | 24% |
| Loses | 62% | 54% | 58% | 57% | 73% | 64% |
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CalendarLLDDLLLLLWDLDDLDWLLLWLLLL
League goals
| Metric | Black Lions | Calendar | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 6 | 6 | 12 | 3 | 8 | 11 |
| GF avg | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| GA total | 14 | 19 | 33 | 11 | 22 | 33 |
| GA avg | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 1.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Black Lions | Calendar | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 42% | 69% | 32% | 76% |
| 1.5 | 4% | 42% | 8% | 32% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 12% | 4% | 12% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 4% | 0% | 4% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Black Lions | Calendar | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| Failed to score | 7 | 8 | 15 | 11 | 6 | 17 |
Penalties
| Metric | Black Lions | Calendar |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Black Lions | Calendar |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 1 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 5 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 1-0 | 1-2 | 1-0 | 2-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 4-0 | 0-2 | 6-1 |
| Goals For | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Black Lions | Calendar |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 25% | 75% |
| Att | 33% | 67% |
| Def | 47% | 53% |
| Poisson Distribution | 50% | 50% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 41.0% | 59.0% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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