HNK Zadar vs Zagora

Third NL - Jug — Croatia

Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 15:00 • Stadion Stanovi

Not Started

HNK Zadar

—

Zagora

Expected Goals

1.64 (league 1.82) 1.85 (league 1.04)

1x2 probabilities

home	draw	away
34.0%	22.2%	42.0%

best score tips

1 - 1

9.2%

1 - 2

8.5%

2 - 1

7.6%

Score & goals probability table

		Zagora
		0	1	2	3	4	5
HNK Zadar	0	3.0%	5.6%	5.2%	3.2%	1.5%	0.6%
	1	5.0%	9.2%	8.5%	5.3%	2.4%	0.9%
	2	4.1%	7.6%	7.0%	4.3%	2.0%	0.7%
	3	2.2%	4.2%	3.9%	2.4%	1.1%	0.4%
	4	0.9%	1.7%	1.6%	1.0%	0.5%	0.2%
	5	0.3%	0.6%	0.5%	0.3%	0.1%	0.1%

FootyWow Elo verdict

Balanced Elo outlook

Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: HNK Zadar +13.1, Zagora +40.5.

Thin confidence Upset risk: High Elo standalone

HNK Zadar Elo 1583.2 · +13.1

Zagora Elo 1625.3 · +40.5

Elo gapZagora +7

Home / draw / away35% / 29% / 36%

Expected home share49%

Combined Elo3208.5

Deep Elo analysisOpen

Structural edge Balanced Elo outlook

Confidence band Thin confidence

Upset risk High

Model agreement Elo standalone

Combined Elo 3208.5

Elo home share 49%

Match tone Must Watch

Metric	HNK Zadar	Zagora
Overall Elo	1583.2	1625.3
Form Elo	1599.5	1645.4
Home / Away Elo	1544.7	1520.5
Attack Elo	1620.4	1682.8
Defense Elo	1588.8	1577.2
Last 5 Elo change	+13.1	+40.5

The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. HNK Zadar last-5 Elo change: +13.1; Zagora last-5 Elo change: +40.5.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

Metric	HNK Zadar	Zagora
Played	5	5
Form	67%	100%
Attack	100%	100%
Defense	70%	80%
Goals For (tot \| avg)	11 \| 2.2	12 \| 2.4
Goals Against (tot \| avg)	3 \| 0.6	2 \| 0.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.30

Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.90

Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.90

Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.50

Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

90%

FT probability

2.5+

63%

FT probability

3.5+

45%

FT probability

BTTS

71%

FT probability

Yellow Cards

Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric	HNK Zadar			Zagora
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Played	12	12	24	12	12	24
Wins	58%	50%	54%	92%	50%	71%
Draws	17%	33%	25%	8%	17%	13%
Loses	25%	17%	21%	0%	33%	17%

HNK ZadarWLWWLWWWLDLDDWDWWDWLWDWW

ZagoraWDWWLWWWWDLWWWWLWDLWWWWW

League goals

Metric	HNK Zadar			Zagora
	H	A	T	H	A	T
GF total	27	25	52	32	19	51
GF avg	2.3	2.1	2.2	2.7	1.6	2.1
GA total	14	8	22	8	15	23
GA avg	1.2	0.7	0.9	0.7	1.3	1.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

Line	HNK Zadar		Zagora
	For	Against	For	Against
0.5	75%	58%	92%	54%
1.5	63%	25%	58%	29%
2.5	50%	8%	42%	13%
3.5	21%	0%	17%	0%
4.5	4%	0%	4%	0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

Metric	HNK Zadar			Zagora
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Clean sheets	4	6	10	7	4	11
Failed to score	2	4	6	0	2	2

Penalties

Metric	HNK Zadar	Zagora
Scored (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	0	0

Streaks

Metric	HNK Zadar	Zagora
Wins	3	4
Draws	2	1
Losses	1	1

Biggest results (H/A)

Metric	H	A	H	A
Biggest wins	4-0	1-6	4-0	0-4
Biggest losses	0-3	2-0	—	3-0
Goals For	4	6	5	4
Goals Against	3	2	2	3

Model comparison

Metric	HNK Zadar	Zagora
Form	40%	60%
Att	48%	52%
Def	40%	60%
Poisson Distribution	48%	52%
H2h	93%	7%
Goals	76%	24%
Total	57.5%	42.5%

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

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League standings

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League page • Country page • Venue page • HNK Zadar vs Zagora

Metric	HNK Zadar	Zagora
Scored (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	0	0