Third NL - Jug — Croatia
Sat, May 2 2026 • 15:00 • Stadion Borovište
Not Started

Zagora

—

Val Kaštel Stari

Expected Goals
3.72 (league 1.82) 0.82 (league 1.02)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
70.7% 7.8% 4.2%
best score tips
3 - 0
9.2%
4 - 0
8.5%
3 - 1
7.5%
Score & goals probability table
Val Kaštel Stari
0 1 2 3 4 5
Zagora 0 1.1% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
1 4.0% 3.3% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
2 7.4% 6.1% 2.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
3 9.2% 7.5% 3.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
4 8.5% 7.0% 2.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
5 6.3% 5.2% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Home strong edge

Zagora carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 224 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Zagora +43.7, Val Kaštel Stari -22.1.

Strong confidence Upset risk: Low Elo standalone
Zagora Elo 1636.7 · +43.7
vs
Val Kaštel Stari Elo 1447.8 · -22.1
Elo gapZagora +224
Home / draw / away64% / 18% / 18%
Expected home share78%
Combined Elo3084.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Home strong edge
Confidence band Strong confidence
Upset risk Low
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 3084.5
Elo home share 78%
Match tone Heavy Favorite
Metric Zagora Val Kaštel Stari
Overall Elo1636.71447.8
Form Elo1658.21438
Home / Away Elo1583.61430.7
Attack Elo1687.31515.5
Defense Elo1582.11424.5
Last 5 Elo change+43.7-22.1

This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Zagora last-5 Elo change: +43.7; Val Kaštel Stari last-5 Elo change: -22.1.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricZagoraVal Kaštel Stari
Played55
Form100%27%
Attack83%67%
Defense83%17%
Goals For (tot | avg)10 | 28 | 1.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)2 | 0.410 | 2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.50
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.90
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.70
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.20
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

67%
FT probability

3.5+

48%
FT probability

BTTS

79%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

na
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Zagora Val Kaštel Stari
HATHAT
Played121325131225
Wins92%54%72%62%8%36%
Draws8%15%12%15%17%16%
Loses0%31%16%23%75%48%
ZagoraWDWWLWWWWDLWWWWLWDLWWWWWW
Val Kaštel StariLWLWWLWLLLWLWLWDDDWLLLLDW

League goals

Metric Zagora Val Kaštel Stari
HATHAT
GF total322153221436
GF avg2.71.62.11.71.21.4
GA total81624133043
GA avg0.71.21.01.02.51.7

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineZagoraVal Kaštel Stari
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.592%56%88%88%
1.560%28%36%48%
2.540%12%20%28%
3.516%0%0%4%
4.54%0%0%4%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricZagoraVal Kaštel Stari
HATHAT
Clean sheets7411303
Failed to score022213

Penalties

MetricZagoraVal Kaštel Stari
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricZagoraVal Kaštel Stari
Wins42
Draws13
Losses14

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-00-43-02-3
Biggest losses—3-00-25-2
Goals For5433
Goals Against2325

Model comparison

MetricZagoraVal Kaštel Stari
Form79%21%
Att56%44%
Def83%17%
Poisson Distribution84%16%
H2h67%33%
Goals61%39%
Total71.7%28.3%
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

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League standings

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