Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 14:00 •
The dwmedia Stadium
Expected Goals
1.39 (league 1.37)
0.92 (league 1.29)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 47.4% | 27.3% | 25.0% |
best score tips
1 - 0
13.7%
1 - 1
12.7%
0 - 0
9.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Lincoln United | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Ashington AFC | 0 | 9.9% | 9.1% | 4.2% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 13.7% | 12.7% | 5.9% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 9.5% | 8.8% | 4.1% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 4.4% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away lean
Lincoln United carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 29 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Ashington AFC +15.4, Lincoln United +41.0.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Ashington AFC
vs
Lincoln United
Elo gapLincoln United +29
Home / draw / away34% / 27% / 39%
Expected home share46%
Combined Elo2995.6
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2995.6
Elo home share
46%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Ashington AFC | Lincoln United |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1465.8 | 1529.8 |
| Form Elo | 1468.7 | 1538 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1490 | 1489.8 |
| Attack Elo | 1407.1 | 1463.3 |
| Defense Elo | 1381.9 | 1567.7 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +15.4 | +41.0 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Ashington AFC last-5 Elo change: +15.4; Lincoln United last-5 Elo change: +41.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Ashington AFC | Lincoln United |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 60% | 87% |
| Attack | 31% | 50% |
| Defense | 56% | 88% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 2 | 0.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.90
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.70
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.30
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.60
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
75%
FT probability
2.5+
53%
FT probability
3.5+
38%
FT probability
BTTS
60%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Ashington AFC | Lincoln United | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 18 | 20 | 38 | 21 | 18 | 39 |
| Wins | 33% | 30% | 32% | 52% | 6% | 31% |
| Draws | 33% | 15% | 24% | 24% | 39% | 31% |
| Loses | 33% | 55% | 45% | 24% | 56% | 38% |
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Lincoln UnitedLWDDLLLWWDLLLDLWDWLDLLLDDWDDWWLLDLWWWWD
League goals
| Metric | Ashington AFC | Lincoln United | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 18 | 15 | 33 | 27 | 12 | 39 |
| GF avg | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 1.0 |
| GA total | 30 | 37 | 67 | 23 | 34 | 57 |
| GA avg | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.5 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Ashington AFC | Lincoln United | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 53% | 68% | 64% | 67% |
| 1.5 | 29% | 39% | 23% | 46% |
| 2.5 | 5% | 29% | 8% | 21% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 21% | 5% | 10% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 11% | 0% | 3% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Ashington AFC | Lincoln United | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 6 | 12 | 10 | 3 | 13 |
| Failed to score | 8 | 10 | 18 | 3 | 11 | 14 |
Penalties
| Metric | Ashington AFC | Lincoln United |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Ashington AFC | Lincoln United |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 4 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 0-2 | 4-2 | 1-4 |
| Biggest losses | 0-8 | 5-0 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 8 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Ashington AFC | Lincoln United |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 41% | 59% |
| Att | 38% | 62% |
| Def | 22% | 78% |
| Poisson Distribution | 60% | 40% |
| H2h | 100% | 0% |
| Goals | 67% | 33% |
| Total | 45.6% | 54.4% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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