Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 14:00 •
The Proctor Cars Stadium
Expected Goals
3.23 (league 1.37)
0.94 (league 1.29)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 70.5% | 11.3% | 7.3% |
best score tips
3 - 0
8.7%
3 - 1
8.2%
2 - 0
8.1%
Score & goals probability table
| Grimsby Borough | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Matlock Town | 0 | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 5.0% | 4.7% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 8.1% | 7.6% | 3.6% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 8.7% | 8.2% | 3.8% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 7.0% | 6.6% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 4.5% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Matlock Town carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 132 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Matlock Town +56.4, Grimsby Borough +25.2.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Matlock Town
vs
Grimsby Borough
Elo gapMatlock Town +132
Home / draw / away56% / 18% / 26%
Expected home share68%
Combined Elo3017.6
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3017.6
Elo home share
68%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Matlock Town | Grimsby Borough |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1557.4 | 1460.2 |
| Form Elo | 1580.8 | 1470.9 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1514.8 | 1485.8 |
| Attack Elo | 1653.9 | 1429.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1531.1 | 1446.6 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +56.4 | +25.2 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Matlock Town last-5 Elo change: +56.4; Grimsby Borough last-5 Elo change: +25.2.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Matlock Town | Grimsby Borough |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 100% | 67% |
| Attack | 88% | 56% |
| Defense | 81% | 63% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 14 | 2.8 | 9 | 1.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.70
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.80
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
89%
FT probability
2.5+
63%
FT probability
3.5+
45%
FT probability
BTTS
67%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Matlock Town | Grimsby Borough | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 17 | 19 | 36 | 20 | 20 | 40 |
| Wins | 71% | 63% | 67% | 30% | 35% | 33% |
| Draws | 12% | 11% | 11% | 25% | 30% | 28% |
| Loses | 18% | 26% | 22% | 45% | 35% | 40% |
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Grimsby BoroughWDDWDDWWWLLDLDLWLWLLLWLWDLLLDLDLDWLWWDLW
League goals
| Metric | Matlock Town | Grimsby Borough | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 45 | 36 | 81 | 19 | 21 | 40 |
| GF avg | 2.6 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| GA total | 18 | 25 | 43 | 27 | 33 | 60 |
| GA avg | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.5 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Matlock Town | Grimsby Borough | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 89% | 67% | 55% | 73% |
| 1.5 | 64% | 36% | 30% | 38% |
| 2.5 | 42% | 14% | 13% | 20% |
| 3.5 | 14% | 3% | 3% | 13% |
| 4.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 5% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Matlock Town | Grimsby Borough | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 9 | 3 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 11 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 8 | 18 |
Penalties
| Metric | Matlock Town | Grimsby Borough |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Matlock Town | Grimsby Borough |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 7 | 3 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 7-1 | 0-3 | 4-1 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-4 | 3-0 | 0-5 | 6-1 |
| Goals For | 7 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Matlock Town | Grimsby Borough |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 60% | 40% |
| Att | 61% | 39% |
| Def | 67% | 33% |
| Poisson Distribution | 77% | 23% |
| H2h | 100% | 0% |
| Goals | 100% | 0% |
| Total | 66.3% | 33.8% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
Loading standings…