Non League Div One - Southern South — England
Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 14:00 • MoreSeaFood Ground
Not Started

Brixham

—

Sporting Club Inkberrow

Expected Goals
1.45 (league 1.74) 1.75 (league 1.30)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
31.7% 23.2% 43.8%
best score tips
1 - 1
10.4%
1 - 2
9.0%
2 - 1
7.5%
Score & goals probability table
Sporting Club Inkberrow
0 1 2 3 4 5
Brixham 0 4.1% 7.1% 6.2% 3.6% 1.6% 0.6%
1 5.9% 10.3% 9.1% 5.3% 2.3% 0.8%
2 4.3% 7.5% 6.6% 3.8% 1.7% 0.6%
3 2.1% 3.6% 3.2% 1.9% 0.8% 0.3%
4 0.7% 1.3% 1.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%
5 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Away lean

Sporting Club Inkberrow carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 34 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Brixham -34.8, Sporting Club Inkberrow -17.4.

Lean confidence Upset risk: Medium-high Elo standalone
Brixham Elo 1414.9 · -34.8
vs
Sporting Club Inkberrow Elo 1484.1 · -17.4
Elo gapSporting Club Inkberrow +34
Home / draw / away33% / 26% / 41%
Expected home share45%
Combined Elo2899
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Away lean
Confidence band Lean confidence
Upset risk Medium-high
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 2899
Elo home share 45%
Match tone Tactical Watch
Metric Brixham Sporting Club Inkberrow
Overall Elo1414.91484.1
Form Elo1410.81469.8
Home / Away Elo1465.51488.8
Attack Elo1456.41514.6
Defense Elo1346.61397.7
Last 5 Elo change-34.8-17.4

There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Brixham last-5 Elo change: -34.8; Sporting Club Inkberrow last-5 Elo change: -17.4.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricBrixhamSporting Club Inkberrow
Played55
Form13%33%
Attack8%38%
Defense71%50%
Goals For (tot | avg)2 | 0.49 | 1.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)7 | 1.412 | 2.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.70
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.60
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.90
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.70
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

92%
FT probability

2.5+

65%
FT probability

3.5+

46%
FT probability

BTTS

75%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

na
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Brixham Sporting Club Inkberrow
HATHAT
Played172037181836
Wins29%20%24%50%22%36%
Draws18%15%16%17%33%25%
Loses53%65%59%33%44%39%
BrixhamLLWWLLLLLLLDDLWDWLLLLLLWDLLWLWWWLLDLD
Sporting Club InkberrowDWLLLWLDLWDDWLWDWWLDDLWWWLLWLLWDDLLW

League goals

Metric Brixham Sporting Club Inkberrow
HATHAT
GF total232043322153
GF avg1.41.01.21.81.21.5
GA total325082303262
GA avg1.92.52.21.71.81.7

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineBrixhamSporting Club Inkberrow
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.565%92%81%72%
1.530%57%31%53%
2.514%27%17%33%
3.58%22%8%11%
4.50%11%6%3%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricBrixhamSporting Club Inkberrow
HATHAT
Clean sheets2135510
Failed to score5813347

Penalties

MetricBrixhamSporting Club Inkberrow
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricBrixhamSporting Club Inkberrow
Wins33
Draws22
Losses73

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-01-43-00-4
Biggest losses1-57-10-35-1
Goals For4464
Goals Against5745

Model comparison

MetricBrixhamSporting Club Inkberrow
Form29%71%
Att18%82%
Def63%37%
Poisson Distribution46%54%
H2h0%100%
Goals0%100%
Total39.0%61.0%
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

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League standings

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