Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 14:00 •
The Stan Robinson Stadium
Expected Goals
1.84 (league 1.74)
0.54 (league 1.30)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 67.7% | 21.0% | 10.1% |
best score tips
1 - 0
17.1%
2 - 0
15.7%
3 - 0
9.6%
Score & goals probability table
| Tavistock | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Willand Rovers | 0 | 9.3% | 5.0% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 17.1% | 9.2% | 2.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 15.7% | 8.4% | 2.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 9.6% | 5.2% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 4.4% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Willand Rovers carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 153 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Willand Rovers -13.1, Tavistock -36.8.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Willand Rovers
vs
Tavistock
Elo gapWilland Rovers +153
Home / draw / away58% / 18% / 24%
Expected home share71%
Combined Elo2755.1
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2755.1
Elo home share
71%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Willand Rovers | Tavistock |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1436.6 | 1318.5 |
| Form Elo | 1433.5 | 1291.4 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1490.5 | 1429.6 |
| Attack Elo | 1483.3 | 1334.8 |
| Defense Elo | 1437 | 1218.6 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -13.1 | -36.8 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Willand Rovers last-5 Elo change: -13.1; Tavistock last-5 Elo change: -36.8.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Willand Rovers | Tavistock |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 13% | 0% |
| Attack | 29% | 8% |
| Defense | 50% | 13% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 2 | 0.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 12 | 2.4 | 21 | 4.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.80
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.30
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.90
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
86%
FT probability
2.5+
60%
FT probability
3.5+
43%
FT probability
BTTS
69%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Willand Rovers | Tavistock | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 17 | 21 | 38 | 15 | 17 | 32 |
| Wins | 35% | 14% | 24% | 13% | 6% | 9% |
| Draws | 24% | 29% | 26% | 0% | 24% | 13% |
| Loses | 41% | 57% | 50% | 87% | 71% | 78% |
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TavistockLWLLDLWLDLLWLLLLLLLLLLLDLLDLLLLL
League goals
| Metric | Willand Rovers | Tavistock | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 19 | 29 | 48 | 10 | 12 | 22 |
| GF avg | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| GA total | 17 | 53 | 70 | 32 | 49 | 81 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.5 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Willand Rovers | Tavistock | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 71% | 82% | 56% | 88% |
| 1.5 | 37% | 50% | 13% | 78% |
| 2.5 | 13% | 26% | 0% | 47% |
| 3.5 | 5% | 8% | 0% | 22% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 8% | 0% | 9% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Willand Rovers | Tavistock | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| Failed to score | 6 | 5 | 11 | 6 | 8 | 14 |
Penalties
| Metric | Willand Rovers | Tavistock |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Willand Rovers | Tavistock |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 1 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 4 | 11 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-1 | 1-3 | 1-0 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | 2-3 | 8-0 | 0-4 | 7-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 8 | 4 | 7 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Willand Rovers | Tavistock |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 100% | 0% |
| Att | 78% | 22% |
| Def | 64% | 36% |
| Poisson Distribution | 78% | 22% |
| H2h | 80% | 20% |
| Goals | 69% | 31% |
| Total | 73.8% | 26.2% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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