Non League Div One - Southern Central — England
Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 14:00 • Top Field
Not Started

Hitchin Town

—

Thame United

Expected Goals
2.10 (league 1.79) 1.55 (league 1.62)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
48.3% 21.0% 28.2%
best score tips
2 - 1
8.9%
1 - 1
8.5%
2 - 2
6.9%
Score & goals probability table
Thame United
0 1 2 3 4 5
Hitchin Town 0 2.6% 4.0% 3.1% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2%
1 5.5% 8.5% 6.5% 3.4% 1.3% 0.4%
2 5.7% 8.9% 6.9% 3.5% 1.4% 0.4%
3 4.0% 6.2% 4.8% 2.5% 1.0% 0.3%
4 2.1% 3.3% 2.5% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2%
5 0.9% 1.4% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Home edge

Hitchin Town carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 68 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Hitchin Town +14.8, Thame United -17.1.

Medium confidence Upset risk: Medium Elo standalone
Hitchin Town Elo 1615 · +14.8
vs
Thame United Elo 1582.5 · -17.1
Elo gapHitchin Town +68
Home / draw / away47% / 22% / 31%
Expected home share60%
Combined Elo3197.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Home edge
Confidence band Medium confidence
Upset risk Medium
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 3197.5
Elo home share 60%
Match tone Good Watch
Metric Hitchin Town Thame United
Overall Elo16151582.5
Form Elo1630.61587.5
Home / Away Elo1544.61579.3
Attack Elo1760.91746.7
Defense Elo1592.21518.4
Last 5 Elo change+14.8-17.1

The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Hitchin Town last-5 Elo change: +14.8; Thame United last-5 Elo change: -17.1.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricHitchin TownThame United
Played55
Form80%47%
Attack36%40%
Defense96%72%
Goals For (tot | avg)9 | 1.810 | 2
Goals Against (tot | avg)1 | 0.27 | 1.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.90
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

5.30
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.40
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

75%
FT probability

3.5+

53%
FT probability

BTTS

78%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

na
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Hitchin Town Thame United
HATHAT
Played202040191938
Wins70%65%68%53%63%58%
Draws15%25%20%21%5%13%
Loses15%10%13%26%32%29%
Hitchin TownWLWDWLWWDWDDWWDWWWDWWDDWWWWWLWLWWWWLWWWW
Thame UnitedLLLLWDWWWLWWLLLWLDWDWWWWWDWWWWWWWDWLLW

League goals

Metric Hitchin Town Thame United
HATHAT
GF total4952101395392
GF avg2.52.62.52.12.82.4
GA total171633292857
GA avg0.90.80.81.51.51.5

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineHitchin TownThame United
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.590%55%89%68%
1.575%23%63%42%
2.540%5%42%26%
3.523%0%29%13%
4.513%0%11%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricHitchin TownThame United
HATHAT
Clean sheets711187512
Failed to score224314

Penalties

MetricHitchin TownThame United
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricHitchin TownThame United
Wins57
Draws21
Losses14

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins6-00-84-00-6
Biggest losses1-33-20-43-1
Goals For6866
Goals Against3344

Model comparison

MetricHitchin TownThame United
Form63%37%
Att47%53%
Def88%13%
Poisson Distribution58%42%
H2h100%0%
Goals100%0%
Total64.0%36.3%
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

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League standings

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League page • Country page • Venue page • Hitchin Town vs Thame United