Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 14:00 •
The Amber Arena and Community Stadium
Expected Goals
1.72 (league 1.44)
2.16 (league 1.34)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 30.4% | 20.6% | 45.9% |
best score tips
1 - 2
8.3%
1 - 1
7.7%
2 - 2
7.1%
Score & goals probability table
| Loughborough University | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Boldmere St. Michaels | 0 | 2.1% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.8% |
| 1 | 3.6% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 3.2% | 1.4% | |
| 2 | 3.1% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 1.2% | |
| 3 | 1.8% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.7% | |
| 4 | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Balanced Elo outlook
Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Boldmere St. Michaels +5.6, Loughborough University +40.3.
Thin confidence
Upset risk: High
Elo standalone
Boldmere St. Michaels
vs
Loughborough University
Elo gapBoldmere St. Michaels +2
Home / draw / away35% / 30% / 35%
Expected home share50%
Combined Elo2990.4
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Balanced Elo outlook
Confidence band
Thin confidence
Upset risk
High
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2990.4
Elo home share
50%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Boldmere St. Michaels | Loughborough University |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1478.7 | 1511.7 |
| Form Elo | 1494.6 | 1530 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1453.3 | 1483.1 |
| Attack Elo | 1456.9 | 1558.4 |
| Defense Elo | 1367.5 | 1501.8 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +5.6 | +40.3 |
The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Boldmere St. Michaels last-5 Elo change: +5.6; Loughborough University last-5 Elo change: +40.3.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Boldmere St. Michaels | Loughborough University |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 80% |
| Attack | 69% | 62% |
| Defense | 8% | 85% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 12 | 2.4 | 2 | 0.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.60
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.60
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
89%
FT probability
2.5+
62%
FT probability
3.5+
44%
FT probability
BTTS
71%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Boldmere St. Michaels | Loughborough University | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 19 | 21 | 40 | 18 | 20 | 38 |
| Wins | 26% | 48% | 38% | 39% | 20% | 29% |
| Draws | 21% | 10% | 15% | 39% | 20% | 29% |
| Loses | 53% | 43% | 48% | 22% | 60% | 42% |
Boldmere St. MichaelsLWLLWDLLWLWLLLLLLWLWLLWDWDLWDWLWWWDDWLLW
Loughborough UniversityDLLLWDLDWWWDLLDLDDLLDLLLLWWDDLDLWWWWWL
League goals
| Metric | Boldmere St. Michaels | Loughborough University | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 24 | 25 | 49 | 21 | 34 | 55 |
| GF avg | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| GA total | 33 | 34 | 67 | 19 | 38 | 57 |
| GA avg | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.5 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Boldmere St. Michaels | Loughborough University | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 63% | 75% | 74% | 71% |
| 1.5 | 38% | 53% | 39% | 45% |
| 2.5 | 20% | 33% | 16% | 26% |
| 3.5 | 3% | 8% | 8% | 8% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 5% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Boldmere St. Michaels | Loughborough University | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 5 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 11 |
| Failed to score | 6 | 9 | 15 | 6 | 4 | 10 |
Penalties
| Metric | Boldmere St. Michaels | Loughborough University |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Boldmere St. Michaels | Loughborough University |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 5 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 6 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-1 | 1-3 | 3-0 | 1-6 |
| Biggest losses | 1-4 | 4-0 | 0-3 | 4-1 |
| Goals For | 4 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Boldmere St. Michaels | Loughborough University |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 37% | 63% |
| Att | 53% | 47% |
| Def | 14% | 86% |
| Poisson Distribution | 44% | 56% |
| H2h | 71% | 29% |
| Goals | 75% | 25% |
| Total | 49.0% | 51.0% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
Loading standings…