Non League Div One - Northern Midlands — England
Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 14:00 • The Oval
Not Started

Bedworth United

—

Mickleover Sports

Expected Goals
1.50 (league 1.44) 1.12 (league 1.34)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
45.6% 25.7% 28.1%
best score tips
1 - 1
12.2%
1 - 0
10.9%
2 - 1
9.2%
Score & goals probability table
Mickleover Sports
0 1 2 3 4 5
Bedworth United 0 7.3% 8.1% 4.5% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1%
1 10.9% 12.2% 6.8% 2.6% 0.7% 0.2%
2 8.2% 9.2% 5.1% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1%
3 4.1% 4.6% 2.6% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
4 1.5% 1.7% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Home edge

Bedworth United carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 83 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Bedworth United +20.9, Mickleover Sports -10.9.

Medium confidence Upset risk: Medium Elo standalone
Bedworth United Elo 1504.3 · +20.9
vs
Mickleover Sports Elo 1456.7 · -10.9
Elo gapBedworth United +83
Home / draw / away49% / 21% / 30%
Expected home share62%
Combined Elo2961
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Home edge
Confidence band Medium confidence
Upset risk Medium
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 2961
Elo home share 62%
Match tone Tactical Watch
Metric Bedworth United Mickleover Sports
Overall Elo1504.31456.7
Form Elo1519.71439.3
Home / Away Elo1460.91447.5
Attack Elo1471.81512
Defense Elo1511.91375.2
Last 5 Elo change+20.9-10.9

The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Bedworth United last-5 Elo change: +20.9; Mickleover Sports last-5 Elo change: -10.9.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricBedworth UnitedMickleover Sports
Played55
Form60%33%
Attack62%77%
Defense69%23%
Goals For (tot | avg)8 | 1.610 | 2
Goals Against (tot | avg)4 | 0.810 | 2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.60
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.20
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.80
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.30
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

78%
FT probability

2.5+

55%
FT probability

3.5+

39%
FT probability

BTTS

70%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

na
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Bedworth United Mickleover Sports
HATHAT
Played202141211940
Wins30%33%32%38%32%35%
Draws20%29%24%43%5%25%
Loses50%38%44%19%63%40%
Bedworth UnitedDLLLDLLLLWWLLLDLLLWDDWLLWWLWWWDWLDLWWDDWD
Mickleover SportsLLWWLDWLLWWWDWWDLLLDWLDWWDLWLWLDLLDDDWLL

League goals

Metric Bedworth United Mickleover Sports
HATHAT
GF total232245401959
GF avg1.21.01.11.91.01.5
GA total292251303464
GA avg1.51.01.21.41.81.6

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineBedworth UnitedMickleover Sports
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.568%78%73%85%
1.532%32%45%43%
2.510%10%25%23%
3.50%5%5%10%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricBedworth UnitedMickleover Sports
HATHAT
Clean sheets459336
Failed to score58132911

Penalties

MetricBedworth UnitedMickleover Sports
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricBedworth UnitedMickleover Sports
Wins33
Draws23
Losses43

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-11-34-10-3
Biggest losses1-44-00-24-0
Goals For3343
Goals Against4434

Model comparison

MetricBedworth UnitedMickleover Sports
Form64%36%
Att44%56%
Def71%29%
Poisson Distribution58%42%
H2h29%71%
Goals29%71%
Total49.2%50.8%
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

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League standings

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