Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 14:00 •
The Dovecote
Expected Goals
1.00 (league 1.44)
0.82 (league 1.34)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 38.6% | 32.4% | 28.8% |
best score tips
1 - 0
16.2%
0 - 0
16.2%
1 - 1
13.3%
Score & goals probability table
| Lichfield City | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Shepshed Dynamo | 0 | 16.2% | 13.3% | 5.4% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 16.2% | 13.3% | 5.5% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 8.1% | 6.7% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 2.7% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Shepshed Dynamo carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 53 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Shepshed Dynamo +2.1, Lichfield City +14.1.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Shepshed Dynamo
vs
Lichfield City
Elo gapShepshed Dynamo +53
Home / draw / away44% / 24% / 32%
Expected home share58%
Combined Elo2999
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2999
Elo home share
58%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Shepshed Dynamo | Lichfield City |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1508.7 | 1490.3 |
| Form Elo | 1516.2 | 1511.3 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1472.3 | 1510.2 |
| Attack Elo | 1431.9 | 1457.1 |
| Defense Elo | 1576.1 | 1461.2 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +2.1 | +14.1 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Shepshed Dynamo last-5 Elo change: +2.1; Lichfield City last-5 Elo change: +14.1.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Shepshed Dynamo | Lichfield City |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 60% |
| Attack | 46% | 77% |
| Defense | 46% | 8% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 10 | 2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 12 | 2.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.20
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
66%
FT probability
2.5+
47%
FT probability
3.5+
33%
FT probability
BTTS
64%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
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Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Shepshed Dynamo | Lichfield City | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 19 | 20 | 39 | 21 | 20 | 41 |
| Wins | 47% | 35% | 41% | 43% | 40% | 41% |
| Draws | 16% | 30% | 23% | 19% | 25% | 22% |
| Loses | 37% | 35% | 36% | 38% | 35% | 37% |
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Lichfield CityLWDWWDLWDWLDWLWWLWDDWLLLLLLWLDDLDWWWWLWLW
League goals
| Metric | Shepshed Dynamo | Lichfield City | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 22 | 25 | 47 | 27 | 22 | 49 |
| GF avg | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| GA total | 19 | 22 | 41 | 32 | 23 | 55 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Shepshed Dynamo | Lichfield City | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 72% | 74% | 68% | 68% |
| 1.5 | 26% | 21% | 34% | 37% |
| 2.5 | 15% | 5% | 15% | 17% |
| 3.5 | 5% | 3% | 2% | 7% |
| 4.5 | 3% | 3% | 0% | 2% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Shepshed Dynamo | Lichfield City | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 7 | 3 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 13 |
| Failed to score | 5 | 6 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 13 |
Penalties
| Metric | Shepshed Dynamo | Lichfield City |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Shepshed Dynamo | Lichfield City |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 4 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 4 | 6 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-0 | 1-4 | 3-0 | 2-4 |
| Biggest losses | 1-5 | 3-0 | 1-6 | 4-1 |
| Goals For | 5 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 5 | 3 | 6 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Shepshed Dynamo | Lichfield City |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 40% | 60% |
| Att | 38% | 63% |
| Def | 63% | 37% |
| Poisson Distribution | 54% | 46% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 49.2% | 51.0% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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