Fri, Dec 5 2025 • 13:00 • Bombo Stadium
Match Finished
2 - 0
Expected Goals
1.18 (league 1.37) 0.60 (league 0.86)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
50.0% 31.2% 18.7%
best score tips
1 - 0
20.0%
0 - 0
17.0%
1 - 1
11.9%
Score & goals probability table
Lugazi
0 1 2 3 4 5
UPDF 0 17.0% 10.1% 3.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
1 20.0% 11.9% 3.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
2 11.8% 7.0% 2.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
3 4.6% 2.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
4 1.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricUPDFLugazi
Played55
Form20%33%
Attack29%29%
Defense35%47%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 15 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)11 | 2.29 | 1.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.00
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.30
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

74%
FT probability

2.5+

52%
FT probability

3.5+

37%
FT probability

BTTS

62%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

- no cards data
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric UPDF Lugazi
HATHAT
Played358448
Wins0%40%25%50%0%25%
Draws0%0%0%50%25%38%
Loses100%60%75%0%75%38%

Form: UPDF: LWLLLWLL • Lugazi: WLDDLWDL

League goals

Metric UPDF Lugazi
HATHAT
GF total257819
GF avg0.71.00.92.00.31.1
GA total59143912
GA avg1.71.81.80.82.31.5

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineUPDFLugazi
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.575%75%38%63%
1.513%50%25%50%
2.50%25%25%25%
3.50%13%13%13%
4.50%13%13%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricUPDFLugazi
HATHAT
Clean sheets022213
Failed to score112235

Penalties

MetricUPDFLugazi
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total11

Streaks

MetricUPDFLugazi
Wins11
Draws02
Losses31

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins—0-15-2—
Biggest losses1-25-1—4-0
Goals For1251
Goals Against2524

Model comparison

MetricUPDFLugazi
Form38%63%
Att50%50%
Def45%55%
Poisson Distribution71%29%
H2h80%20%
Goals60%40%
Total57.3%42.8%

Advice: Double chance : UPDF or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.78 @ Marathonbet
Draw4.16 @ Pinnacle
Away4.50 @ Bet365

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.10 @ Bet365
Under 2.52.25 @ Betfair

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.63 @ Marathonbet
No2.40 @ Betfair
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): UPDF = 1.18 (league 1.37), Lugazi = 0.60 (league 0.86)

Lugazi
0 1 2 3 4 5
UPDF 0 17.0% 10.1% 3.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
1 20.0% 11.9% 3.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
2 11.8% 7.0% 2.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
3 4.6% 2.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
4 1.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 50.0% · Draw 31.2% · Away win 18.7%

vtt 1 , vtd1