Wed, Jan 7 2026 • 17:00 • MTN Omondi Stadium
Match Finished

NEC

1 - 0
Expected Goals
2.04 (league 1.41) 0.22 (league 0.92)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
79.3% 15.7% 3.2%
best score tips
2 - 0
21.7%
1 - 0
21.4%
3 - 0
14.8%
Score & goals probability table
Lugazi
0 1 2 3 4 5
NEC 0 10.5% 2.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1 21.4% 4.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 21.7% 4.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 14.8% 3.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 7.5% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 3.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricNECLugazi
Played55
Form40%13%
Attack57%29%
Defense43%0%
Goals For (tot | avg)4 | 0.82 | 0.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)4 | 0.88 | 1.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.90
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.50
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.50
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.20
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

65%
FT probability

2.5+

46%
FT probability

3.5+

33%
FT probability

BTTS

64%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

0 - 0 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric NEC Lugazi
HATHAT
Played47116511
Wins25%14%18%33%0%18%
Draws75%43%55%50%20%36%
Loses0%43%27%17%80%45%

Form: NEC: DDLWDLWDDLD • Lugazi: WLDDLWDLLDL

League goals

Metric NEC Lugazi
HATHAT
GF total551010111
GF avg1.30.70.91.70.21.0
GA total471161117
GA avg1.01.01.01.02.21.5

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineNECLugazi
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.582%73%45%73%
1.59%27%18%55%
2.50%0%18%18%
3.50%0%9%9%
4.50%0%9%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricNECLugazi
HATHAT
Clean sheets123213
Failed to score022246

Penalties

MetricNECLugazi
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total11

Streaks

MetricNECLugazi
Wins11
Draws22
Losses12

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins1-00-15-2—
Biggest losses—2-11-24-0
Goals For2151
Goals Against2224

Model comparison

MetricNECLugazi
Form75%25%
Att67%33%
Def67%33%
Poisson Distribution89%11%
H2h50%50%
Goals67%33%
Total69.2%30.8%

Advice: Combo Double chance : NEC or draw and -3.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.48 @ Bet365
Draw4.00 @ Superbet
Away7.65 @ 1xBet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.20 @ Bet365
Under 2.51.68 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.32 @ Superbet
No1.57 @ William Hill
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): NEC = 2.04 (league 1.41), Lugazi = 0.22 (league 0.92)

Lugazi
0 1 2 3 4 5
NEC 0 10.5% 2.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1 21.4% 4.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 21.7% 4.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 14.8% 3.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 7.5% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 3.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 79.3% · Draw 15.7% · Away win 3.2%

vtt 3 , vtd1