Thu, Apr 30 2026 • 15:30 •
Isamuhyo Stadium
Expected Goals
1.49 (league 1.34)
0.38 (league 0.93)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 65.1% | 25.4% | 9.1% |
best score tips
1 - 0
23.0%
2 - 0
17.2%
0 - 0
15.4%
Score & goals probability table
| KMC | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| JKT Tanzania | 0 | 15.4% | 5.8% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 23.0% | 8.7% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 17.2% | 6.5% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 8.5% | 3.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
JKT Tanzania carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 177 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: JKT Tanzania -12.3, KMC -26.6.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
JKT Tanzania
vs
KMC
Elo gapJKT Tanzania +177
Home / draw / away61% / 18% / 21%
Expected home share74%
Combined Elo2902.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2902.9
Elo home share
74%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | JKT Tanzania | KMC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1522.6 | 1380.3 |
| Form Elo | 1517.9 | 1364.2 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1497.2 | 1439.4 |
| Attack Elo | 1463 | 1360 |
| Defense Elo | 1536.6 | 1432 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -12.3 | -26.6 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. JKT Tanzania last-5 Elo change: -12.3; KMC last-5 Elo change: -26.6.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | JKT Tanzania | KMC |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 33% | 7% |
| Attack | 24% | 18% |
| Defense | 35% | 47% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 3 | 0.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 11 | 2.2 | 9 | 1.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.70
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
60%
FT probability
2.5+
42%
FT probability
3.5+
30%
FT probability
BTTS
61%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | JKT Tanzania | KMC | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 9 | 10 | 19 | 9 | 10 | 19 |
| Wins | 33% | 40% | 37% | 22% | 0% | 11% |
| Draws | 44% | 40% | 42% | 22% | 10% | 16% |
| Loses | 22% | 20% | 21% | 56% | 90% | 74% |
JKT TanzaniaDWDDDLWWWDWDLWWDLDL
KMCWLLLLLLDLLDLWLLLLLD
League goals
| Metric | JKT Tanzania | KMC | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 9 | 11 | 20 | 3 | 5 | 8 |
| GF avg | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| GA total | 6 | 14 | 20 | 10 | 20 | 30 |
| GA avg | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.6 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | JKT Tanzania | KMC | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 74% | 58% | 37% | 84% |
| 1.5 | 26% | 26% | 5% | 42% |
| 2.5 | 5% | 11% | 0% | 26% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 5% | 0% | 5% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 5% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | JKT Tanzania | KMC | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 12 |
Penalties
| Metric | JKT Tanzania | KMC |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | JKT Tanzania | KMC |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 1 |
| Draws | 3 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 6 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 0-2 | 1-0 | — |
| Biggest losses | 1-2 | 5-0 | 0-3 | 4-1 |
| Goals For | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 5 | 3 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | JKT Tanzania | KMC |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 83% | 17% |
| Att | 57% | 43% |
| Def | 45% | 55% |
| Poisson Distribution | 79% | 21% |
| H2h | 62% | 38% |
| Goals | 63% | 38% |
| Total | 64.8% | 35.3% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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