Serie A — Brazil
Thu, Dec 4 2025 • 00:30 • MRV Arena
Not Started
Expected Goals
1.38 (league 1.31) 1.62 (league 0.83)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
32.4% 24.1% 42.6%
best score tips
1 - 1
11.1%
1 - 2
9.0%
0 - 1
8.1%
Score & goals probability table
Palmeiras
0 1 2 3 4 5
Atletico-MG 0 5.0% 8.1% 6.5% 3.5% 1.4% 0.5%
1 6.9% 11.1% 9.0% 4.9% 2.0% 0.6%
2 4.7% 7.7% 6.2% 3.4% 1.4% 0.4%
3 2.2% 3.5% 2.9% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2%
4 0.8% 1.2% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
5 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricAtletico-MGPalmeiras
Played55
Form53%13%
Attack73%20%
Defense47%60%
Goals For (tot | avg)11 | 2.23 | 0.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)8 | 1.66 | 1.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.80
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.00
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.10
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

71%
FT probability

2.5+

50%
FT probability

3.5+

35%
FT probability

BTTS

67%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Atletico-MG Palmeiras
HATHAT
Played171835191736
Wins47%17%31%63%53%58%
Draws47%22%34%26%12%19%
Loses6%61%34%11%35%22%

Form: Atletico-MG: LDDLWDWWDDWWLLLWDLLLDLWDLWDLWDWWDLD • Palmeiras: DWWWWLWWWLLDWWWDWWWDWWLWWWWLDWWLLDDL

League goals

Metric Atletico-MG Palmeiras
HATHAT
GF total251338352560
GF avg1.50.71.11.81.51.7
GA total152540112132
GA avg0.91.41.10.61.20.9

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineAtletico-MGPalmeiras
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.563%66%78%61%
1.529%37%53%22%
2.514%11%22%6%
3.53%0%11%0%
4.50%0%3%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricAtletico-MGPalmeiras
HATHAT
Clean sheets841210414
Failed to score31013628

Penalties

MetricAtletico-MGPalmeiras
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%6 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total16

Streaks

MetricAtletico-MGPalmeiras
Wins24
Draws22
Losses32

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-02-45-10-2
Biggest losses1-33-00-23-2
Goals For3453
Goals Against3323

Model comparison

MetricAtletico-MGPalmeiras
Form80%20%
Att79%21%
Def43%57%
Poisson Distribution48%52%
H2h29%71%
Goals36%64%
Total52.5%47.5%

Advice: Double chance : Atletico-MG or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.01 @ 1xBet
Draw3.30 @ Betano
Away2.55 @ Unibet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.23 @ Unibet
Under 2.51.70 @ 1xBet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.91 @ Bet365
No1.91 @ Bet365
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Atletico-MG = 1.38 (league 1.31), Palmeiras = 1.62 (league 0.83)

Palmeiras
0 1 2 3 4 5
Atletico-MG 0 5.0% 8.1% 6.5% 3.5% 1.4% 0.5%
1 6.9% 11.1% 9.0% 4.9% 2.0% 0.6%
2 4.7% 7.7% 6.2% 3.4% 1.4% 0.4%
3 2.2% 3.5% 2.9% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2%
4 0.8% 1.2% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
5 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 32.4% · Draw 24.1% · Away win 42.6%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1