Serie A — Brazil
Sun, Nov 23 2025 • 19:00 • Arena Fonte Nova
Match Finished
Expected Goals
2.20 (league 1.31) 1.35 (league 0.83)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
54.3% 20.2% 22.7%
best score tips
2 - 1
9.4%
1 - 1
8.5%
2 - 0
6.9%
Score & goals probability table
Vasco DA Gama
0 1 2 3 4 5
Bahia 0 2.9% 3.9% 2.6% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1%
1 6.3% 8.5% 5.7% 2.6% 0.9% 0.2%
2 6.9% 9.4% 6.3% 2.9% 1.0% 0.3%
3 5.1% 6.9% 4.7% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2%
4 2.8% 3.8% 2.6% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1%
5 1.2% 1.7% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricBahiaVasco DA Gama
Played55
Form27%20%
Attack40%27%
Defense27%33%
Goals For (tot | avg)6 | 1.24 | 0.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)11 | 2.210 | 2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.90
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.20
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.80
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.40
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

81%
FT probability

2.5+

57%
FT probability

3.5+

40%
FT probability

BTTS

71%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Bahia Vasco DA Gama
HATHAT
Played171734171734
Wins71%18%44%41%29%35%
Draws18%29%24%24%12%18%
Loses12%53%32%35%59%47%

Form: Bahia: DDDLWWWLWLWWWDWDDWWLLDLWLWLWWLWLDL • Vasco DA Gama: WLWLDLLLWLLWLDDLDWLLWDDWWLWWWWLLLL

League goals

Metric Bahia Vasco DA Gama
HATHAT
GF total301646262450
GF avg1.80.91.41.51.41.5
GA total142943232851
GA avg0.81.71.31.41.61.5

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineBahiaVasco DA Gama
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.582%68%68%79%
1.538%35%44%50%
2.512%18%24%21%
3.53%3%6%0%
4.50%3%3%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricBahiaVasco DA Gama
HATHAT
Clean sheets8311437
Failed to score0665611

Penalties

MetricBahiaVasco DA Gama
Scored (total | %)4 | 100.00%5 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total45

Streaks

MetricBahiaVasco DA Gama
Wins34
Draws32
Losses23

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-00-33-00-6
Biggest losses2-35-11-33-0
Goals For4346
Goals Against3533

Model comparison

MetricBahiaVasco DA Gama
Form57%43%
Att60%40%
Def48%52%
Poisson Distribution63%37%
H2h50%50%
Goals47%53%
Total54.2%45.8%

Advice: Double chance : Bahia or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.72 @ 1xBet
Draw4.03 @ Pinnacle
Away5.50 @ Bet365

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.94 @ 1xBet
Under 2.52.13 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.89 @ 188Bet
No2.10 @ Betfair
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Bahia = 2.20 (league 1.31), Vasco DA Gama = 1.35 (league 0.83)

Vasco DA Gama
0 1 2 3 4 5
Bahia 0 2.9% 3.9% 2.6% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1%
1 6.3% 8.5% 5.7% 2.6% 0.9% 0.2%
2 6.9% 9.4% 6.3% 2.9% 1.0% 0.3%
3 5.1% 6.9% 4.7% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2%
4 2.8% 3.8% 2.6% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1%
5 1.2% 1.7% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 54.3% · Draw 20.2% · Away win 22.7%

vtt 6 , vtd1