Serie A — Brazil
Wed, Nov 26 2025 • 00:30 • Arena MRV
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.03 (league 1.31) 1.73 (league 0.83)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
22.5% 23.8% 52.8%
best score tips
1 - 1
11.3%
0 - 1
10.9%
1 - 2
9.8%
Score & goals probability table
Flamengo
0 1 2 3 4 5
Atletico-MG 0 6.3% 10.9% 9.4% 5.4% 2.3% 0.8%
1 6.5% 11.3% 9.8% 5.6% 2.4% 0.8%
2 3.4% 5.8% 5.0% 2.9% 1.3% 0.4%
3 1.2% 2.0% 1.7% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1%
4 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricAtletico-MGFlamengo
Played55
Form53%67%
Attack67%93%
Defense53%53%
Goals For (tot | avg)10 | 214 | 2.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)7 | 1.47 | 1.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.20
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.10
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.80
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.80
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

71%
FT probability

2.5+

50%
FT probability

3.5+

35%
FT probability

BTTS

64%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Atletico-MG Flamengo
HATHAT
Played161834181735
Wins50%17%32%72%53%63%
Draws44%22%32%28%18%23%
Loses6%61%35%0%29%14%

Form: Atletico-MG: LDDLWDWWDDWWLLLWDLLLDLWDLWDLWDWWDL • Flamengo: DWWWDWLWDWWWLWWWDWWWDWDWDLWWLWDWWLW

League goals

Metric Atletico-MG Flamengo
HATHAT
GF total241337452873
GF avg1.50.71.12.51.62.1
GA total14253981523
GA avg0.91.41.10.40.90.7

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineAtletico-MGFlamengo
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.562%65%83%51%
1.529%38%57%14%
2.515%12%31%0%
3.53%0%14%0%
4.50%0%11%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricAtletico-MGFlamengo
HATHAT
Clean sheets841212517
Failed to score31013246

Penalties

MetricAtletico-MGFlamengo
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%7 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total17

Streaks

MetricAtletico-MGFlamengo
Wins23
Draws21
Losses31

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-02-48-01-5
Biggest losses1-33-0—2-1
Goals For3485
Goals Against3322

Model comparison

MetricAtletico-MGFlamengo
Form44%56%
Att42%58%
Def50%50%
Poisson Distribution38%62%
H2h38%62%
Goals40%60%
Total42.0%58.0%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Flamengo

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home4.10 @ Unibet
Draw3.45 @ 188Bet
Away2.10 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.48 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.65 @ 10Bet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.13 @ Pinnacle
No1.80 @ 10Bet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): Atletico-MG = 1.03 (league 1.31), Flamengo = 1.73 (league 0.83)

Flamengo
0 1 2 3 4 5
Atletico-MG 0 6.3% 10.9% 9.4% 5.4% 2.3% 0.8%
1 6.5% 11.3% 9.8% 5.6% 2.4% 0.8%
2 3.4% 5.8% 5.0% 2.9% 1.3% 0.4%
3 1.2% 2.0% 1.7% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1%
4 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 22.5% · Draw 23.8% · Away win 52.8%

Vtot 4 , Vtod1