Serie A — Brazil
Sun, Dec 7 2025 • 19:00 • Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho
Not Started
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Expected Goals
1.24 (league 1.31) 2.49 (league 0.84)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
17.2% 17.9% 60.6%
best score tips
1 - 2
9.2%
1 - 3
7.7%
0 - 2
7.4%
Score & goals probability table
Gremio
0 1 2 3 4 5
Sport Recife 0 2.4% 6.0% 7.4% 6.2% 3.8% 1.9%
1 3.0% 7.4% 9.2% 7.7% 4.8% 2.4%
2 1.8% 4.6% 5.7% 4.8% 3.0% 1.5%
3 0.8% 1.9% 2.4% 2.0% 1.2% 0.6%
4 0.2% 0.6% 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricSport RecifeGremio
Played55
Form0%47%
Attack31%77%
Defense0%31%
Goals For (tot | avg)4 | 0.810 | 2
Goals Against (tot | avg)16 | 3.29 | 1.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.00
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.30
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.70
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

79%
FT probability

2.5+

55%
FT probability

3.5+

39%
FT probability

BTTS

72%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Sport Recife Gremio
HATHAT
Played181937191837
Wins6%5%5%47%17%32%
Draws39%21%30%26%28%27%
Loses56%74%65%26%56%41%

Form: Sport Recife: DLLLLDLLLDLLLDDDWDLLDWLDDLDLLLLLLLLLL • Gremio: WLLLDDWDLWWDLDLWLLWDDLWDWDLWLWLLDWLWL

League goals

Metric Sport Recife Gremio
HATHAT
GF total171128241943
GF avg0.90.60.81.31.11.2
GA total353671173350
GA avg1.91.91.90.91.81.4

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineSport RecifeGremio
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.557%86%70%84%
1.519%65%32%32%
2.50%30%14%11%
3.50%8%0%8%
4.50%3%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricSport RecifeGremio
HATHAT
Clean sheets325516
Failed to score610165611

Penalties

MetricSport RecifeGremio
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%10 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total210

Streaks

MetricSport RecifeGremio
Wins12
Draws32
Losses43

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins1-00-13-11-3
Biggest losses1-53-00-24-0
Goals For2233
Goals Against5324

Model comparison

MetricSport RecifeGremio
Form0%100%
Att29%71%
Def36%64%
Poisson Distribution36%64%
H2h71%29%
Goals50%50%
Total44.4%55.6%

Advice: Winner : Gremio

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home4.83 @ 1xBet
Draw3.90 @ 188Bet
Away1.75 @ Bet365

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.75 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.52.14 @ 1xBet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.73 @ Betfair
No2.15 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Sport Recife = 1.24 (league 1.31), Gremio = 2.49 (league 0.84)

Gremio
0 1 2 3 4 5
Sport Recife 0 2.4% 6.0% 7.4% 6.2% 3.8% 1.9%
1 3.0% 7.4% 9.2% 7.7% 4.8% 2.4%
2 1.8% 4.6% 5.7% 4.8% 3.0% 1.5%
3 0.8% 1.9% 2.4% 2.0% 1.2% 0.6%
4 0.2% 0.6% 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 17.2% · Draw 17.9% · Away win 60.6%

Vtot 2 , Vtod1