Wed, Oct 22 2025 • 00:30 • Estadio Banco Guayaquil
Not Started
Expected Goals
1.19 (league 1.42) 0.91 (league 0.92)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
42.4% 29.5% 27.9%
best score tips
1 - 0
14.6%
1 - 1
13.3%
0 - 0
12.2%
Score & goals probability table
Atletico-MG
0 1 2 3 4 5
Independiente del Valle 0 12.2% 11.1% 5.0% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1%
1 14.6% 13.3% 6.0% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1%
2 8.7% 7.9% 3.6% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0%
3 3.5% 3.1% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
4 1.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricIndependiente del ValleAtletico-MG
Played55
Form53%73%
Attack78%78%
Defense44%56%
Goals For (tot | avg)7 | 1.47 | 1.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)5 | 14 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.40
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.90
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.60
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.70
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

69%
FT probability

2.5+

48%
FT probability

3.5+

34%
FT probability

BTTS

61%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Independiente del Valle Atletico-MG
HATHAT
Played3366612
Wins67%33%50%67%33%50%
Draws0%67%33%33%50%42%
Loses33%0%17%0%17%8%

Form: Independiente del Valle: WDWDLW • Atletico-MG: DWDLWDWDWWDW

League goals

Metric Independiente del Valle Atletico-MG
HATHAT
GF total561112719
GF avg1.72.01.82.01.21.6
GA total2354610
GA avg0.71.00.80.71.00.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineIndependiente del ValleAtletico-MG
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.583%50%92%58%
1.550%33%42%17%
2.533%0%17%8%
3.517%0%8%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricIndependiente del ValleAtletico-MG
HATHAT
Clean sheets213235
Failed to score101011

Penalties

MetricIndependiente del ValleAtletico-MG
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%3 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total03

Streaks

MetricIndependiente del ValleAtletico-MG
Wins12
Draws11
Losses11

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-00-34-00-1
Biggest losses0-23-2
Goals For4342
Goals Against2213

Model comparison

MetricIndependiente del ValleAtletico-MG
Form42%58%
Att50%50%
Def44%56%
Poisson Distribution59%41%
H2h20%80%
Goals33%67%
Total41.3%58.7%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Atletico-MG

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.00 @ William Hill
Draw3.35 @ 188Bet
Away4.24 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.06 @ 188Bet
No1.80 @ William Hill

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.25 @ Bet365
Under 2.51.64 @ Marathonbet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Independiente del Valle = 1.19 (league 1.42), Atletico-MG = 0.91 (league 0.92)

Atletico-MG
0 1 2 3 4 5
Independiente del Valle 0 12.2% 11.1% 5.0% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1%
1 14.6% 13.3% 6.0% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1%
2 8.7% 7.9% 3.6% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0%
3 3.5% 3.1% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
4 1.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 42.4% · Draw 29.5% · Away win 27.9%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1