Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 10:00 •
Estadio Dr. Jorge Sampaio
Expected Goals
2.60 (league 1.55)
1.26 (league 1.49)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 61.4% | 17.2% | 16.4% |
best score tips
2 - 1
9.0%
3 - 1
7.8%
2 - 0
7.2%
Score & goals probability table
| Damaiense W | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Valadares Gaia W | 0 | 2.1% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 5.5% | 6.9% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 7.2% | 9.0% | 5.6% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 6.2% | 7.8% | 4.9% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 4.0% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 2.1% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Valadares Gaia W carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 160 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Valadares Gaia W +1.7, Damaiense W -18.9.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Valadares Gaia W
vs
Damaiense W
Elo gapValadares Gaia W +160
Home / draw / away59% / 18% / 23%
Expected home share72%
Combined Elo2935.2
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2935.2
Elo home share
72%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Valadares Gaia W | Damaiense W |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1530.2 | 1405 |
| Form Elo | 1531.1 | 1378.6 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1510.1 | 1459.2 |
| Attack Elo | 1625.4 | 1401 |
| Defense Elo | 1500.1 | 1368.6 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +1.7 | -18.9 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Valadares Gaia W last-5 Elo change: +1.7; Damaiense W last-5 Elo change: -18.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Valadares Gaia W | Damaiense W |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 13% |
| Attack | 38% | 23% |
| Defense | 54% | 8% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 12 | 2.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.10
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.80
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
68%
FT probability
3.5+
48%
FT probability
BTTS
76%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Valadares Gaia W | Damaiense W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 7 | 8 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 15 |
| Wins | 29% | 50% | 40% | 0% | 14% | 7% |
| Draws | 29% | 38% | 33% | 38% | 29% | 33% |
| Loses | 43% | 13% | 27% | 63% | 57% | 60% |
Valadares Gaia WWDLLWDWWLWDLDWD
Damaiense WWLLDLDLDLLLLDDL
League goals
| Metric | Valadares Gaia W | Damaiense W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 9 | 10 | 19 | 4 | 8 | 12 |
| GF avg | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| GA total | 12 | 6 | 18 | 23 | 22 | 45 |
| GA avg | 1.7 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Valadares Gaia W | Damaiense W | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 80% | 67% | 53% | 100% |
| 1.5 | 40% | 33% | 20% | 73% |
| 2.5 | 7% | 13% | 7% | 60% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 7% | 0% | 27% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Valadares Gaia W | Damaiense W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
Penalties
| Metric | Valadares Gaia W | Damaiense W |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 5 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 5 |
Streaks
| Metric | Valadares Gaia W | Damaiense W |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 1 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-0 | 1-3 | — | 1-2 |
| Biggest losses | 1-4 | 2-0 | 0-6 | 8-0 |
| Goals For | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Valadares Gaia W | Damaiense W |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 75% | 25% |
| Att | 63% | 38% |
| Def | 67% | 33% |
| Poisson Distribution | 70% | 30% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 60% | 40% |
| Total | 64.2% | 36.0% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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