Sun, Oct 5 2025 • 21:00 • Venue TBA
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.32 (league 1.09) 0.12 (league 1.02)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
69.0% 27.6% 3.2%
best score tips
1 - 0
31.3%
0 - 0
23.7%
2 - 0
20.7%
Score & goals probability table
Danubio
0 1 2 3 4 5
Penarol 0 23.7% 2.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1 31.3% 3.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 20.7% 2.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 9.1% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 3.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricPenarolDanubio
Played55
Form87%60%
Attack100%100%
Defense43%14%
Goals For (tot | avg)11 | 2.212 | 2.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)4 | 0.86 | 1.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.70
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.40
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.80
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

64%
FT probability

2.5+

45%
FT probability

3.5+

32%
FT probability

BTTS

60%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Penarol Danubio
HATHAT
Played549459
Wins100%50%78%75%20%44%
Draws0%25%11%0%20%11%
Loses0%25%11%25%60%44%

Form: Penarol: WWLWWWDWW • Danubio: DWLLLWWLW

League goals

Metric Penarol Danubio
HATHAT
GF total9101911314
GF avg1.82.52.12.80.61.6
GA total167549
GA avg0.21.50.81.30.81.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LinePenarolDanubio
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.5100%56%67%67%
1.567%22%56%22%
2.533%0%11%11%
3.511%0%11%0%
4.50%0%11%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricPenarolDanubio
HATHAT
Clean sheets404123
Failed to score000033

Penalties

MetricPenarolDanubio
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total10

Streaks

MetricPenarolDanubio
Wins32
Draws11
Losses13

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-01-45-10-2
Biggest losses—2-12-32-1
Goals For3452
Goals Against1232

Model comparison

MetricPenarolDanubio
Form59%41%
Att48%52%
Def60%40%
Poisson Distribution89%11%
H2h60%40%
Goals63%38%
Total63.2%37.0%

Advice: Double chance : Penarol or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.48 @ Unibet
Draw4.75 @ Bet365
Away7.56 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.09 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.80 @ Bet365

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.45 @ 188Bet
No1.63 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Penarol = 1.32 (league 1.09), Danubio = 0.12 (league 1.02)

Danubio
0 1 2 3 4 5
Penarol 0 23.7% 2.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1 31.3% 3.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 20.7% 2.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 9.1% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 3.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 69.0% · Draw 27.6% · Away win 3.2%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1