Sat, Oct 11 2025 • 21:00 • Parque Palermo
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.26 (league 1.19) 1.36 (league 0.92)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
34.5% 26.2% 38.8%
best score tips
1 - 1
12.5%
0 - 1
9.9%
1 - 0
9.2%
Score & goals probability table
Penarol
0 1 2 3 4 5
Miramar 0 7.3% 9.9% 6.7% 3.0% 1.0% 0.3%
1 9.2% 12.5% 8.5% 3.8% 1.3% 0.4%
2 5.8% 7.9% 5.3% 2.4% 0.8% 0.2%
3 2.5% 3.3% 2.3% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
4 0.8% 1.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricMiramarPenarol
Played55
Form27%87%
Attack56%100%
Defense22%67%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 19 | 1.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)7 | 1.43 | 0.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.40
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.50
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.10
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

79%
FT probability

2.5+

55%
FT probability

3.5+

39%
FT probability

BTTS

70%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

3 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Miramar Penarol
HATHAT
Played46106410
Wins25%33%30%100%50%80%
Draws50%0%20%0%25%10%
Loses25%67%50%0%25%10%

Form: Miramar: WLLDWLWLDL • Penarol: WWLWWWDWWW

League goals

Metric Miramar Penarol
HATHAT
GF total4913111021
GF avg1.01.51.31.82.52.1
GA total21214167
GA avg0.52.01.40.21.50.7

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineMiramarPenarol
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.560%80%100%50%
1.540%40%70%20%
2.530%20%30%0%
3.50%0%10%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricMiramarPenarol
HATHAT
Clean sheets202505
Failed to score224000

Penalties

MetricMiramarPenarol
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total21

Streaks

MetricMiramarPenarol
Wins13
Draws11
Losses21

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-01-33-01-4
Biggest losses0-13-0—2-1
Goals For3334
Goals Against1312

Model comparison

MetricMiramarPenarol
Form24%76%
Att36%64%
Def30%70%
Poisson Distribution44%56%
H2h0%100%
Goals17%83%
Total30.2%69.8%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Penarol

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home7.50 @ Betfair
Draw4.50 @ Bet365
Away1.48 @ Bet365

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.04 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.85 @ Bet365

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.32 @ Pinnacle
No1.67 @ William Hill
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Miramar = 1.26 (league 1.19), Penarol = 1.36 (league 0.92)

Penarol
0 1 2 3 4 5
Miramar 0 7.3% 9.9% 6.7% 3.0% 1.0% 0.3%
1 9.2% 12.5% 8.5% 3.8% 1.3% 0.4%
2 5.8% 7.9% 5.3% 2.4% 0.8% 0.2%
3 2.5% 3.3% 2.3% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
4 0.8% 1.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 34.5% · Draw 26.2% · Away win 38.8%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1