Liga Pro — Ecuador
Sat, Nov 1 2025 • 21:30 • Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.65 (league 1.35) 1.39 (league 1.03)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
43.1% 23.9% 32.0%
best score tips
1 - 1
11.0%
2 - 1
9.1%
1 - 0
7.9%
Score & goals probability table
El Nacional
0 1 2 3 4 5
Aucas 0 4.8% 6.6% 4.6% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2%
1 7.9% 11.0% 7.6% 3.5% 1.2% 0.3%
2 6.5% 9.1% 6.3% 2.9% 1.0% 0.3%
3 3.6% 5.0% 3.5% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2%
4 1.5% 2.1% 1.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%
5 0.5% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricAucasEl Nacional
Played55
Form40%27%
Attack45%36%
Defense55%0%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 14 | 0.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)5 | 113 | 2.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.40
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.70
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.90
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.70
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

76%
FT probability

2.5+

54%
FT probability

3.5+

38%
FT probability

BTTS

69%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Aucas El Nacional
HATHAT
Played161733171633
Wins50%24%36%35%25%30%
Draws25%29%27%12%38%24%
Loses25%47%36%53%38%45%

Form: Aucas: WLDDWLDWLWWWDLWDLWLWLWLWLLLDDDLDW • El Nacional: LDDLLLWLLWDWDWWLLDWLDDLLWWWLLLDLW

League goals

Metric Aucas El Nacional
HATHAT
GF total231942152136
GF avg1.41.11.30.91.31.1
GA total172845252550
GA avg1.11.61.41.51.61.5

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineAucasEl Nacional
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.588%70%61%76%
1.533%36%33%42%
2.53%18%15%18%
3.53%6%0%12%
4.50%3%0%3%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricAucasEl Nacional
HATHAT
Clean sheets7310538
Failed to score2248513

Penalties

MetricAucasEl Nacional
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total02

Streaks

MetricAucasEl Nacional
Wins33
Draws32
Losses33

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-11-22-00-3
Biggest losses1-46-20-54-0
Goals For4233
Goals Against4654

Model comparison

MetricAucasEl Nacional
Form60%40%
Att56%44%
Def72%28%
Poisson Distribution58%42%
H2h62%38%
Goals54%46%
Total60.3%39.7%

Advice: Double chance : Aucas or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.67 @ 188Bet
Draw4.15 @ Pinnacle
Away5.93 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.89 @ Pinnacle
No1.96 @ 188Bet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.84 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.52.00 @ Bet365
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Aucas = 1.65 (league 1.35), El Nacional = 1.39 (league 1.03)

El Nacional
0 1 2 3 4 5
Aucas 0 4.8% 6.6% 4.6% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2%
1 7.9% 11.0% 7.6% 3.5% 1.2% 0.3%
2 6.5% 9.1% 6.3% 2.9% 1.0% 0.3%
3 3.6% 5.0% 3.5% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2%
4 1.5% 2.1% 1.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%
5 0.5% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 43.1% · Draw 23.9% · Away win 32.0%

Vtot 4 , Vtod1