Liga Pro — Ecuador
Sun, Nov 9 2025 • 20:30 • Olimpico Atahualpa
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.79 (league 1.36) 1.33 (league 1.01)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
22.2% 28.3% 49.2%
best score tips
0 - 1
15.9%
1 - 1
12.6%
0 - 0
12.0%
Score & goals probability table
Emelec
0 1 2 3 4 5
El Nacional 0 12.0% 15.9% 10.6% 4.7% 1.6% 0.4%
1 9.5% 12.6% 8.4% 3.7% 1.2% 0.3%
2 3.8% 5.0% 3.3% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1%
3 1.0% 1.3% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricEl NacionalEmelec
Played55
Form33%53%
Attack47%27%
Defense20%73%
Goals For (tot | avg)7 | 1.44 | 0.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)12 | 2.44 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.10
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.80
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.70
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.70
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

66%
FT probability

2.5+

47%
FT probability

3.5+

33%
FT probability

BTTS

62%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric El Nacional Emelec
HATHAT
Played171734171734
Wins35%24%29%41%35%38%
Draws12%41%26%29%29%29%
Loses53%35%44%29%35%32%

Form: El Nacional: LDDLLLWLLWDWDWWLLDWLDDLLWWWLLLDLWD • Emelec: LLDLWDDDWLWLLLWDDDWLWWWDWLWLWDWDWL

League goals

Metric El Nacional Emelec
HATHAT
GF total152439181634
GF avg0.91.41.11.10.91.0
GA total252853172138
GA avg1.51.61.61.01.21.1

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineEl NacionalEmelec
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.562%76%62%68%
1.535%44%24%29%
2.518%21%9%9%
3.50%12%6%6%
4.50%3%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricEl NacionalEmelec
HATHAT
Clean sheets5387411
Failed to score85136713

Penalties

MetricEl NacionalEmelec
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%7 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total27

Streaks

MetricEl NacionalEmelec
Wins33
Draws23
Losses33

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-00-34-02-4
Biggest losses0-54-00-43-0
Goals For3344
Goals Against5443

Model comparison

MetricEl NacionalEmelec
Form38%62%
Att64%36%
Def25%75%
Poisson Distribution40%60%
H2h50%50%
Goals40%60%
Total42.8%57.2%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Emelec

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.66 @ 188Bet
Draw3.40 @ Unibet
Away2.74 @ 10Bet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.12 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.77 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.85 @ 188Bet
No1.95 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): El Nacional = 0.79 (league 1.36), Emelec = 1.33 (league 1.01)

Emelec
0 1 2 3 4 5
El Nacional 0 12.0% 15.9% 10.6% 4.7% 1.6% 0.4%
1 9.5% 12.6% 8.4% 3.7% 1.2% 0.3%
2 3.8% 5.0% 3.3% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1%
3 1.0% 1.3% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 22.2% · Draw 28.3% · Away win 49.2%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1