Liga Pro — Ecuador
Tue, Dec 16 2025 • 00:00 • Estadio George Capwell
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.17 (league 1.38) 1.42 (league 1.01)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
31.0% 26.2% 42.3%
best score tips
1 - 1
12.5%
0 - 1
10.7%
1 - 2
8.8%
Score & goals probability table
El Nacional
0 1 2 3 4 5
Emelec 0 7.5% 10.7% 7.5% 3.6% 1.3% 0.4%
1 8.8% 12.5% 8.8% 4.2% 1.5% 0.4%
2 5.2% 7.3% 5.2% 2.4% 0.9% 0.2%
3 2.0% 2.8% 2.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
4 0.6% 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricEmelecEl Nacional
Played55
Form20%47%
Attack22%89%
Defense0%0%
Goals For (tot | avg)2 | 0.48 | 1.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)9 | 1.812 | 2.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.10
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.20
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.80
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.90
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

71%
FT probability

2.5+

50%
FT probability

3.5+

36%
FT probability

BTTS

64%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Emelec El Nacional
HATHAT
Played191938191938
Wins37%37%37%42%21%32%
Draws26%26%26%11%37%24%
Loses37%37%37%47%42%45%

Form: Emelec: LLDLWDDDWLWLLLWDDDWLWWWDWLWLWDWDWLLLWL • El Nacional: LDDLLLWLLWDWDWWLLDWLDDLLWWWLLLDLWDWLLW

League goals

Metric Emelec El Nacional
HATHAT
GF total181836202444
GF avg0.90.90.91.11.31.2
GA total212344273562
GA avg1.11.21.21.41.81.6

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineEmelecEl Nacional
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.561%68%61%79%
1.521%34%37%45%
2.58%8%18%21%
3.55%5%0%13%
4.50%0%0%5%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricEmelecEl Nacional
HATHAT
Clean sheets7512538
Failed to score87158715

Penalties

MetricEmelecEl Nacional
Scored (total | %)8 | 100.00%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total82

Streaks

MetricEmelecEl Nacional
Wins33
Draws32
Losses33

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-02-43-10-3
Biggest losses0-43-00-55-0
Goals For4433
Goals Against4355

Model comparison

MetricEmelecEl Nacional
Form30%70%
Att20%80%
Def57%43%
Poisson Distribution51%49%
H2h40%60%
Goals55%45%
Total42.2%57.8%

Advice: Double chance : draw or El Nacional

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.88 @ 1xBet
Draw4.50 @ Bet365
Away2.75 @ Superbet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.76 @ 188Bet
Under 2.52.40 @ Bet365

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.58 @ Superbet
No2.62 @ William Hill
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Emelec = 1.17 (league 1.38), El Nacional = 1.42 (league 1.01)

El Nacional
0 1 2 3 4 5
Emelec 0 7.5% 10.7% 7.5% 3.6% 1.3% 0.4%
1 8.8% 12.5% 8.8% 4.2% 1.5% 0.4%
2 5.2% 7.3% 5.2% 2.4% 0.9% 0.2%
3 2.0% 2.8% 2.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
4 0.6% 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 31.0% · Draw 26.2% · Away win 42.3%

vtt 4 , vtd1