Liga Pro — Ecuador
Tue, Nov 4 2025 • 00:00 • Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.94 (league 1.35) 2.33 (league 1.03)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
13.7% 18.0% 65.2%
best score tips
0 - 2
10.3%
1 - 2
9.7%
0 - 1
8.8%
Score & goals probability table
Independiente del Valle
0 1 2 3 4 5
Libertad 0 3.8% 8.8% 10.3% 8.0% 4.6% 2.2%
1 3.6% 8.3% 9.7% 7.5% 4.4% 2.0%
2 1.7% 3.9% 4.6% 3.6% 2.1% 1.0%
3 0.5% 1.2% 1.4% 1.1% 0.7% 0.3%
4 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%
5 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricLibertadIndependiente del Valle
Played55
Form53%73%
Attack38%77%
Defense77%69%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 110 | 2
Goals Against (tot | avg)3 | 0.64 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.30
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.60
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.00
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

78%
FT probability

2.5+

55%
FT probability

3.5+

39%
FT probability

BTTS

73%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Libertad Independiente del Valle
HATHAT
Played171633151732
Wins59%19%39%53%71%63%
Draws6%63%33%40%24%31%
Loses35%19%27%7%6%6%

Form: Libertad: WDLWWDLDWWLLDLLDWDWWWDLWDWDLDWWDL • Independiente del Valle: LDDWDWWWWWLWWWDDDWDWWWWDWWWWDDWW

League goals

Metric Libertad Independiente del Valle
HATHAT
GF total281745263460
GF avg1.61.11.41.72.01.9
GA total201838111324
GA avg1.21.11.20.70.80.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineLibertadIndependiente del Valle
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.579%79%91%66%
1.536%24%59%9%
2.515%9%28%0%
3.56%3%9%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricLibertadIndependiente del Valle
HATHAT
Clean sheets4375611
Failed to score347123

Penalties

MetricLibertadIndependiente del Valle
Scored (total | %)5 | 100.00%4 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total54

Streaks

MetricLibertadIndependiente del Valle
Wins35
Draws13
Losses21

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-11-24-00-4
Biggest losses1-42-01-22-0
Goals For4344
Goals Against4322

Model comparison

MetricLibertadIndependiente del Valle
Form42%58%
Att33%67%
Def57%43%
Poisson Distribution31%69%
H2h38%62%
Goals36%64%
Total39.5%60.5%

Advice: Winner : Independiente del Valle

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home6.10 @ Betano
Draw4.15 @ Betano
Away1.80 @ 188Bet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.92 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.52.05 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.91 @ Pinnacle
No1.98 @ Unibet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Libertad = 0.94 (league 1.35), Independiente del Valle = 2.33 (league 1.03)

Independiente del Valle
0 1 2 3 4 5
Libertad 0 3.8% 8.8% 10.3% 8.0% 4.6% 2.2%
1 3.6% 8.3% 9.7% 7.5% 4.4% 2.0%
2 1.7% 3.9% 4.6% 3.6% 2.1% 1.0%
3 0.5% 1.2% 1.4% 1.1% 0.7% 0.3%
4 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%
5 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 13.7% · Draw 18.0% · Away win 65.2%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1