Tue, Oct 14 2025 • 23:00 • Estadio de la UNSA
Match Finished
Expected Goals
2.81 (league 1.47) 0.96 (league 0.94)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
69.1% 14.2% 10.1%
best score tips
2 - 0
9.1%
2 - 1
8.7%
3 - 0
8.5%
Score & goals probability table
Alianza Universidad
0 1 2 3 4 5
FBC Melgar 0 2.3% 2.2% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
1 6.5% 6.2% 3.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
2 9.1% 8.7% 4.2% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1%
3 8.5% 8.2% 3.9% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1%
4 6.0% 5.8% 2.8% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
5 3.4% 3.2% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricFBC MelgarAlianza Universidad
Played55
Form60%20%
Attack100%50%
Defense70%0%
Goals For (tot | avg)10 | 25 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)3 | 0.614 | 2.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.50
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.80
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.00
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.20
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

82%
FT probability

2.5+

58%
FT probability

3.5+

41%
FT probability

BTTS

74%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric FBC Melgar Alianza Universidad
HATHAT
Played151631151530
Wins53%25%39%20%20%20%
Draws20%63%42%27%13%20%
Loses27%13%19%53%67%60%

Form: FBC Melgar: WWWWWWLLDDWDDWDLDDWLDDLWDLDWDWD • Alianza Universidad: DLLLDLLWDLLLDDLLWLLLWLDWWLLLLW

League goals

Metric FBC Melgar Alianza Universidad
HATHAT
GF total271946151530
GF avg1.81.21.51.01.01.0
GA total141933233457
GA avg0.91.21.11.52.31.9

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineFBC MelgarAlianza Universidad
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.584%77%63%83%
1.539%23%33%57%
2.513%3%3%33%
3.56%3%0%13%
4.53%0%0%3%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricFBC MelgarAlianza Universidad
HATHAT
Clean sheets437325
Failed to score2356511

Penalties

MetricFBC MelgarAlianza Universidad
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total22

Streaks

MetricFBC MelgarAlianza Universidad
Wins62
Draws22
Losses24

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins6-12-32-00-3
Biggest losses0-24-10-35-1
Goals For6323
Goals Against2435

Model comparison

MetricFBC MelgarAlianza Universidad
Form75%25%
Att67%33%
Def82%18%
Poisson Distribution74%26%
H2h75%25%
Goals83%17%
Total76.0%24.0%

Advice: Winner : FBC Melgar

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.35 @ Betano
Draw5.50 @ Unibet
Away9.75 @ Betano

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.62 @ 10Bet
Under 2.52.30 @ Bet365

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.03 @ 188Bet
No1.80 @ William Hill
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): FBC Melgar = 2.81 (league 1.47), Alianza Universidad = 0.96 (league 0.94)

Alianza Universidad
0 1 2 3 4 5
FBC Melgar 0 2.3% 2.2% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
1 6.5% 6.2% 3.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
2 9.1% 8.7% 4.2% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1%
3 8.5% 8.2% 3.9% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1%
4 6.0% 5.8% 2.8% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
5 3.4% 3.2% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 69.1% · Draw 14.2% · Away win 10.1%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1