Sat, Oct 18 2025 • 20:15 • Estadio Juan Maldonado Gamarra
Second Half
Expected Goals
0.90 (league 1.47) 1.15 (league 0.94)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
28.3% 30.1% 41.4%
best score tips
0 - 1
14.9%
1 - 1
13.3%
0 - 0
12.9%
Score & goals probability table
Alianza Atletico
0 1 2 3 4 5
Comerciantes Unidos 0 12.9% 14.9% 8.5% 3.3% 0.9% 0.2%
1 11.6% 13.3% 7.7% 2.9% 0.8% 0.2%
2 5.2% 6.0% 3.4% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%
3 1.5% 1.8% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricComerciantes UnidosAlianza Atletico
Played55
Form53%60%
Attack50%67%
Defense42%58%
Goals For (tot | avg)6 | 1.28 | 1.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)7 | 1.45 | 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.50
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.40
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

66%
FT probability

2.5+

46%
FT probability

3.5+

33%
FT probability

BTTS

64%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Comerciantes Unidos Alianza Atletico
HATHAT
Played151530161531
Wins20%20%20%69%27%48%
Draws47%13%30%13%20%16%
Loses33%67%50%19%53%35%

Form: Comerciantes Unidos: DLDLDWLLDDLLLLWLLLLDLDWLWWLDWD • Alianza Atletico: LWLWDLLWWWWWWWLWLWDDDLWLLDWLLWW

League goals

Metric Comerciantes Unidos Alianza Atletico
HATHAT
GF total161531251439
GF avg1.11.01.01.60.91.3
GA total183048101828
GA avg1.22.01.60.61.20.9

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineComerciantes UnidosAlianza Atletico
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.570%83%65%55%
1.530%43%39%26%
2.53%23%16%6%
3.50%10%6%3%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricComerciantes UnidosAlianza Atletico
HATHAT
Clean sheets32510414
Failed to score4594711

Penalties

MetricComerciantes UnidosAlianza Atletico
Scored (total | %)4 | 100.00%3 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total43

Streaks

MetricComerciantes UnidosAlianza Atletico
Wins27
Draws23
Losses42

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-00-24-12-4
Biggest losses0-44-02-42-0
Goals For3244
Goals Against4443

Model comparison

MetricComerciantes UnidosAlianza Atletico
Form47%53%
Att43%57%
Def42%58%
Poisson Distribution42%58%
H2h29%71%
Goals25%75%
Total38.0%62.0%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Alianza Atletico

💸

Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.43 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.10 @ Bet365
Away3.14 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.00 @ Bet365
No1.84 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.36 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.59 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
📊

League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Comerciantes Unidos = 0.90 (league 1.47), Alianza Atletico = 1.15 (league 0.94)

Alianza Atletico
0 1 2 3 4 5
Comerciantes Unidos 0 12.9% 14.9% 8.5% 3.3% 0.9% 0.2%
1 11.6% 13.3% 7.7% 2.9% 0.8% 0.2%
2 5.2% 6.0% 3.4% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%
3 1.5% 1.8% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 28.3% · Draw 30.1% · Away win 41.4%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1