Thu, Oct 16 2025 • 00:00 • Estadio Luis Franzini
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.50 (league 0.67) 0.05 (league 0.59)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
75.6% 22.8% 1.1%
best score tips
1 - 0
31.8%
2 - 0
23.9%
0 - 0
21.2%
Score & goals probability table
Penarol
0 1 2 3 4 5
Defensor Sporting 0 21.2% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1 31.8% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 23.9% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 11.9% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 4.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricDefensor SportingPenarol
Played33
Form100%100%
Attack39%39%
Defense100%89%
Goals For (tot | avg)7 | 2.37 | 2.3
Goals Against (tot | avg)0 | 02 | 0.7

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.60
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.50
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

0.70
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

0.50
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

74%
FT probability

2.5+

52%
FT probability

3.5+

37%
FT probability

BTTS

62%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1 - 1 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Defensor Sporting Penarol
HATHAT
Played123123
Wins100%100%100%100%100%100%
Draws0%0%0%0%0%0%
Loses0%0%0%0%0%0%

Form: Defensor Sporting: WWW • Penarol: WWW

League goals

Metric Defensor Sporting Penarol
HATHAT
GF total257257
GF avg2.02.52.32.02.52.3
GA total000112
GA avg0.00.00.01.00.50.7

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineDefensor SportingPenarol
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.5100%0%100%67%
1.5100%0%100%0%
2.533%0%33%0%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricDefensor SportingPenarol
HATHAT
Clean sheets123011
Failed to score000000

Penalties

MetricDefensor SportingPenarol
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricDefensor SportingPenarol
Wins33
Draws00
Losses00

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-00-32-10-3
Biggest losses
Goals For2323
Goals Against0011

Model comparison

MetricDefensor SportingPenarol
Form50%50%
Att50%50%
Def100%0%
Poisson Distribution100%0%
H2h0%100%
Goals0%100%
Total50.0%50.0%

Advice: Double chance : Defensor Sporting or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home5.50 @ Betano
Draw3.15 @ Unibet
Away1.98 @ 188Bet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.45 @ 10Bet
Under 2.51.55 @ Betano

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.38 @ Bet365
No1.70 @ Betano
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Defensor Sporting = 1.50 (league 0.67), Penarol = 0.05 (league 0.59)

Penarol
0 1 2 3 4 5
Defensor Sporting 0 21.2% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1 31.8% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 23.9% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 11.9% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 4.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 75.6% · Draw 22.8% · Away win 1.1%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1