First League — Russia
Sat, Oct 11 2025 • 14:00 • Stadion Shinnik
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.81 (league 1.23) 0.60 (league 1.05)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
37.5% 37.7% 24.7%
best score tips
0 - 0
24.4%
1 - 0
19.8%
0 - 1
14.6%
Score & goals probability table
Fakel
0 1 2 3 4 5
Shinnik Yaroslavl 0 24.4% 14.6% 4.4% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0%
1 19.8% 11.9% 3.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
2 8.1% 4.8% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
3 2.2% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricShinnik YaroslavlFakel
Played55
Form53%53%
Attack33%27%
Defense80%73%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 14 | 0.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)3 | 0.64 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.70
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.90
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.40
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.70
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

48%
FT probability

2.5+

34%
FT probability

3.5+

24%
FT probability

BTTS

56%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Shinnik Yaroslavl Fakel
HATHAT
Played67136713
Wins50%14%31%83%43%62%
Draws17%57%38%17%29%23%
Loses33%29%31%0%29%15%

Form: Shinnik Yaroslavl: LDLLWDWDWDDWL • Fakel: WWWWWWLDWLDDW

League goals

Metric Shinnik Yaroslavl Fakel
HATHAT
GF total64106612
GF avg1.00.60.81.00.90.9
GA total4610178
GA avg0.70.90.80.21.00.6

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineShinnik YaroslavlFakel
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.554%54%77%46%
1.523%15%15%15%
2.50%8%0%0%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricShinnik YaroslavlFakel
HATHAT
Clean sheets336527
Failed to score246123

Penalties

MetricShinnik YaroslavlFakel
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total11

Streaks

MetricShinnik YaroslavlFakel
Wins16
Draws22
Losses21

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-01-22-11-2
Biggest losses0-23-1—2-0
Goals For2222
Goals Against2312

Model comparison

MetricShinnik YaroslavlFakel
Form50%50%
Att56%44%
Def57%43%
Poisson Distribution60%40%
H2h50%50%
Goals56%44%
Total54.8%45.2%

Advice: Combo Double chance : Shinnik Yaroslavl or draw and -3.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.75 @ Pinnacle
Draw2.95 @ 188Bet
Away2.33 @ 1xBet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.53.05 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.38 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.43 @ Pinnacle
No1.57 @ 188Bet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): Shinnik Yaroslavl = 0.81 (league 1.23), Fakel = 0.60 (league 1.05)

Fakel
0 1 2 3 4 5
Shinnik Yaroslavl 0 24.4% 14.6% 4.4% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0%
1 19.8% 11.9% 3.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
2 8.1% 4.8% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
3 2.2% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 37.5% · Draw 37.7% · Away win 24.7%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1