Sun, Oct 19 2025 • 18:30 • Parque Abraham Paladino
Match Finished
Expected Goals
2.13 (league 1.10) 0.16 (league 1.02)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
82.0% 13.8% 2.0%
best score tips
2 - 0
23.0%
1 - 0
21.6%
3 - 0
16.4%
Score & goals probability table
Defensor Sporting
0 1 2 3 4 5
Progreso 0 10.1% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1 21.6% 3.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 23.0% 3.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 16.4% 2.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 8.7% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 3.7% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricProgresoDefensor Sporting
Played55
Form73%47%
Attack50%40%
Defense100%60%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 14 | 0.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)0 | 04 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.90
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.90
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.10
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

56%
FT probability

2.5+

40%
FT probability

3.5+

28%
FT probability

BTTS

54%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

3 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Progreso Defensor Sporting
HATHAT
Played56115611
Wins80%17%45%100%17%55%
Draws0%33%18%0%17%9%
Loses20%50%36%0%67%36%

Form: Progreso: LLLWLWDWDWW • Defensor Sporting: LWWWLWLWDWL

League goals

Metric Progreso Defensor Sporting
HATHAT
GF total9413718
GF avg1.80.71.21.40.20.7
GA total47112810
GA avg0.81.21.00.41.30.9

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineProgresoDefensor Sporting
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.582%45%55%55%
1.527%45%18%18%
2.59%9%0%9%
3.50%0%0%9%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricProgresoDefensor Sporting
HATHAT
Clean sheets336325
Failed to score022055

Penalties

MetricProgresoDefensor Sporting
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total20

Streaks

MetricProgresoDefensor Sporting
Wins13
Draws11
Losses31

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-00-12-10-1
Biggest losses1-23-1—4-0
Goals For3121
Goals Against2314

Model comparison

MetricProgresoDefensor Sporting
Form61%39%
Att56%44%
Def100%0%
Poisson Distribution92%8%
H2h29%71%
Goals29%71%
Total53.4%46.6%

Advice: Combo Double chance : Progreso or draw and -3.5 goals

💸

Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.19 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.27 @ 1xBet
Away2.41 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.24 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.70 @ Betano

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.94 @ 188Bet
No1.91 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
📊

League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Progreso = 2.13 (league 1.10), Defensor Sporting = 0.16 (league 1.02)

Defensor Sporting
0 1 2 3 4 5
Progreso 0 10.1% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1 21.6% 3.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 23.0% 3.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 16.4% 2.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 8.7% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 3.7% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 82.0% · Draw 13.8% · Away win 2.0%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1