Sat, Oct 11 2025 • 18:30 • Venue TBA
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.48 (league 1.04) 2.42 (league 0.94)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
22.2% 19.0% 54.7%
best score tips
1 - 2
8.8%
1 - 1
7.2%
1 - 3
7.1%
Score & goals probability table
La Luz
0 1 2 3 4 5
Uruguay Montevideo 0 2.0% 4.9% 5.9% 4.8% 2.9% 1.4%
1 3.0% 7.2% 8.8% 7.1% 4.3% 2.1%
2 2.2% 5.4% 6.5% 5.2% 3.2% 1.5%
3 1.1% 2.6% 3.2% 2.6% 1.6% 0.8%
4 0.4% 1.0% 1.2% 1.0% 0.6% 0.3%
5 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricUruguay MontevideoLa Luz
Played55
Form0%67%
Attack10%33%
Defense33%67%
Goals For (tot | avg)2 | 0.47 | 1.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)14 | 2.87 | 1.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.80
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.10
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.20
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.60
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

76%
FT probability

2.5+

54%
FT probability

3.5+

38%
FT probability

BTTS

70%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

- no cards data
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Uruguay Montevideo La Luz
HATHAT
Played141529151429
Wins29%13%21%20%14%17%
Draws7%13%10%40%50%45%
Loses64%73%69%40%36%38%

Form: Uruguay Montevideo: LLWWWLWLWLLDDLLDLLLLLLLWLLLLL • La Luz: DDLDLDLDDLLDDLDLWDLLLDWDLWDWW

League goals

Metric Uruguay Montevideo La Luz
HATHAT
GF total13821141731
GF avg0.90.50.70.91.21.1
GA total262349202444
GA avg1.91.51.71.31.71.5

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineUruguay MontevideoLa Luz
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.552%90%69%79%
1.514%41%28%45%
2.57%24%7%17%
3.50%10%3%10%
4.50%3%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricUruguay MontevideoLa Luz
HATHAT
Clean sheets213426
Failed to score5914459

Penalties

MetricUruguay MontevideoLa Luz
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total22

Streaks

MetricUruguay MontevideoLa Luz
Wins31
Draws22
Losses73

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-11-32-00-2
Biggest losses0-45-10-44-0
Goals For3324
Goals Against4544

Model comparison

MetricUruguay MontevideoLa Luz
Form0%100%
Att22%78%
Def33%67%
Poisson Distribution37%63%
H2h20%80%
Goals29%71%
Total28.2%71.8%

Advice: Double chance : draw or La Luz

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.70 @ William Hill
Draw3.30 @ Bet365
Away2.05 @ 10Bet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.43 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.61 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.12 @ Pinnacle
No1.76 @ Unibet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Uruguay Montevideo = 1.48 (league 1.04), La Luz = 2.42 (league 0.94)

La Luz
0 1 2 3 4 5
Uruguay Montevideo 0 2.0% 4.9% 5.9% 4.8% 2.9% 1.4%
1 3.0% 7.2% 8.8% 7.1% 4.3% 2.1%
2 2.2% 5.4% 6.5% 5.2% 3.2% 1.5%
3 1.1% 2.6% 3.2% 2.6% 1.6% 0.8%
4 0.4% 1.0% 1.2% 1.0% 0.6% 0.3%
5 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 22.2% · Draw 19.0% · Away win 54.7%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1