Sat, Oct 25 2025 • 19:00 • Estadio Luis Troccoli
Match Finished
2 - 0
Expected Goals
1.46 (league 1.10) 1.89 (league 1.02)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
29.5% 22.3% 46.5%
best score tips
1 - 1
9.7%
1 - 2
9.2%
2 - 1
7.1%
Score & goals probability table
Penarol
0 1 2 3 4 5
Cerro 0 3.5% 6.6% 6.3% 4.0% 1.9% 0.7%
1 5.1% 9.7% 9.2% 5.8% 2.7% 1.0%
2 3.7% 7.1% 6.7% 4.2% 2.0% 0.7%
3 1.8% 3.4% 3.2% 2.0% 1.0% 0.4%
4 0.7% 1.3% 1.2% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1%
5 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricCerroPenarol
Played55
Form80%87%
Attack50%100%
Defense70%70%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 111 | 2.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)3 | 0.63 | 0.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.10
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.40
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.90
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.40
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

77%
FT probability

2.5+

54%
FT probability

3.5+

39%
FT probability

BTTS

72%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

3 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Cerro Penarol
HATHAT
Played57127512
Wins60%43%50%100%40%75%
Draws0%14%8%0%40%17%
Loses40%43%42%0%20%8%

Form: Cerro: DLWWLLLWWLWW • Penarol: WWLWWWDWWWDW

League goals

Metric Cerro Penarol
HATHAT
GF total5611141226
GF avg1.00.90.92.02.42.2
GA total4913189
GA avg0.81.31.10.11.60.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineCerroPenarol
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.567%58%100%50%
1.525%25%75%25%
2.50%8%33%0%
3.50%8%8%0%
4.50%8%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricCerroPenarol
HATHAT
Clean sheets235606
Failed to score134000

Penalties

MetricCerroPenarol
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total11

Streaks

MetricCerroPenarol
Wins23
Draws11
Losses31

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-10-23-01-4
Biggest losses1-25-1—2-1
Goals For2234
Goals Against2512

Model comparison

MetricCerroPenarol
Form48%52%
Att31%69%
Def50%50%
Poisson Distribution37%63%
H2h7%93%
Goals13%88%
Total31.0%69.2%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Penarol

💸

Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home10.10 @ 1xBet
Draw5.10 @ Superbet
Away1.39 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.11 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.87 @ Superbet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.77 @ 188Bet
No1.53 @ William Hill
Select to view full market tables.
📊

League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Cerro = 1.46 (league 1.10), Penarol = 1.89 (league 1.02)

Penarol
0 1 2 3 4 5
Cerro 0 3.5% 6.6% 6.3% 4.0% 1.9% 0.7%
1 5.1% 9.7% 9.2% 5.8% 2.7% 1.0%
2 3.7% 7.1% 6.7% 4.2% 2.0% 0.7%
3 1.8% 3.4% 3.2% 2.0% 1.0% 0.4%
4 0.7% 1.3% 1.2% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1%
5 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 29.5% · Draw 22.3% · Away win 46.5%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1